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▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Crash/Gemini Generated Image
An on-chain warning has emerged that Bitcoin (BTC) has been pushed back from the $80,000 threshold, indicating that cautious position adjustments rather than strong bullish conviction are dominating the market.
According to FXStreet on May 27 (local time), Bitcoin fell below $75,000, and Glassnode diagnosed that the market recovery was closer to cautious repositioning rather than aggressive buying inflows. Glassnode analyzed that many recent investors entered around the current price range, forming a structure where short-term cost bases are concentrated at the top, and a weakening of demand could lead to a larger downward reaction.
Glassnode presented key price levels: short-term holder cost basis at approximately $78,000, true market average at approximately $78,300, and long-term realized price at approximately $54,200. The recent accumulation in the $75,000 to $78,000 range has brought the average entry price for short-term holders close to the true market average. The explanation is that if the price stabilizes above this range, there remains a possibility of an initial bullish reversal, but failure to defend it could lead to steeper downward pressure.
Glassnode stated, "If the price stabilizes above the true market average, the possibility of moving into a pre-bullish phase still remains." However, the realized profit/loss ratio is 1.56, indicating that investors are realizing profits, but it falls short of the levels seen at the beginning of a strong bull market. Glassnode explained, "While the previous price recovery was robust, it appears to have been driven by cautious position readjustments rather than aggressive demand inflows characteristic of a longer-lasting cycle transition."
The net realized profit/loss for short-term holders also improved from deeply negative levels in February to around -0.02%, but it was not enough to confirm a clear momentum shift. The spot trading volume delta turned negative, indicating that selling dominance intensified again after Bitcoin was rejected in the early $80,000 range. Institutional demand also weakened, and Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced outflows over the past two weeks.
In the derivatives market, short-term implied volatility quickly decreased. The 1-month implied volatility dropped from approximately 38.5% to about 33% over the past two weeks, and the price being confined to a narrow range suggested that traders are anticipating a low probability of sharp short-term fluctuations. Glassnode added, "For Bitcoin to rise significantly from here, spot demand must return. Otherwise, the market risks reverting to the sluggish, sell-dominant trend that limited its gains earlier this year."
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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