XRP, falling behind Bitcoin since 2017...Analyst "Beware of an additional 62% drop"

▲ XRP, Bitcoin (BTC)

XRP's bearish trend against Bitcoin (BTC) since 2017 has once again come under scrutiny, with a leading analyst diagnosing no clear signs of an altcoin rotation.

According to crypto media outlet The Crypto Basic on May 26 (local time), crypto analyst Chart Nerd analyzed that XRP continues to underperform Bitcoin in both the short and long term. He stated that XRP supporters need a reality check, evaluating the price movement compared to Bitcoin as disappointing despite strong rebound periods.

Chart Nerd presented the performance difference over the past three months as key evidence. Bitcoin rose 38% from its year-to-date low of $60,000 to $82,800 this month, but XRP failed to keep pace in its Bitcoin pair and fell back below the 20-month exponential moving average. XRP also rose 37% from a February low of $1.12 to a May high of $1.54, but its performance against Bitcoin was weak.

The long-term structure was also identified as a burden. The XRP/Bitcoin pair has maintained a pattern of continuously lower highs since 2017, with recovery attempts being thwarted below the main downtrend resistance line for years. Highs near 0.000097 in January 2019, 0.0000426 in November 2020, 0.0000390 in May 2021, 0.0000297 in July 2023, and 0.0000257 in January 2026 were all recorded as lower highs than previous ones.

However, this does not mean XRP has completely collapsed in the long term. According to the article, the XRP/Bitcoin pair has maintained its position above a major support area marked as an ‘historical outperformance zone’ on the chart, with buying pressure entering whenever this zone was approached. However, considering the recent break below the 20-month moving average and the rejection at the downtrend resistance line, Chart Nerd believes the pair is likely to fall further.

Chart Nerd's projected downside target range is 0.0000071 to 0.0000065. This represents an additional drop of 59% to 62% from the current level of around 0.0000174. He analyzed that XRP could fall relatively more significantly while Bitcoin consolidates or experiences a mild correction. Another chartist, Ali Martinez, predicted that if the correction continues, XRP could drop to around $0.73.

Chart Nerd was not entirely pessimistic about XRP's long-term outlook. He believes that XRP's price could reach higher levels in the long run but assessed that it might continue to underperform Bitcoin for most of 2026.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*