Bitcoin, Should Beginners Buy It?..."Endured 84% Crash, 10-Year Return Outperforms S&P 500"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image

Even after Bitcoin retreated from its high in October 2025, it is still being discussed as a strong long-term investment candidate for novice investors, driven by its 10-year long-term returns and demand for spot ETFs.

According to 24/7 Wall Street on May 27 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $77,000 as of May 2026, remaining below its October 2025 high of $126,000. The media evaluated Bitcoin as an asset that has performed excellently in the long term but has repeatedly experienced sharp declines that are difficult for investors to endure.

Bitcoin started with almost no value in 2009 and has recorded an average annual compound return of approximately 40% to 60% over the past decade. During the same period, gold roughly doubled, and the S&P 500, including reinvested dividends, increased by more than three times. 24/7 Wall Street explained that Bitcoin surpassed $1,000 in 2013, $10,000 in 2017, and $100,000 by the end of 2024, successively outperforming major asset classes.

However, the risk of sharp declines remains a key variable. Bitcoin recovered and set new highs after falling 84% in 2018 and 77% in 2022, respectively. After hitting a low of approximately $16,000 at the end of 2022, it rose to $126,000 by October 2025. The media pointed out that while Bitcoin has recovered from all past bear markets, past patterns do not guarantee future returns.

On the demand side, Bitcoin spot ETFs were presented as the biggest structural change. After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Bitcoin spot ETFs on January 10, 2024, a channel opened for Wall Street funds to flow into Bitcoin through regular brokerage accounts. The new ETFs pushed the price of Bitcoin from around $38,000 to $78,000 in about two months, and current Bitcoin spot ETFs hold over $106 billion in assets, accounting for approximately 6% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization.

The long-term outlook is also aggressive. Bernstein and Standard Chartered projected Bitcoin's price to be between $500,000 and $1,000,000 by 2030, while Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity, based on a demand model, presented a scenario of $1,000,000 by 2030 and up to $1 billion between 2038 and 2040. 24/7 Wall Street explained that for novice investors, a dollar-cost averaging approach, investing a fixed amount each month, is more realistic than trying to time the bottom. They analyzed that by starting to buy at $1,000,000 and going through a low of $25,000 and a recovery to $50,000, the actual average purchase price could be lowered to approximately $44,444.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*