Bitcoin, on the verge of selling pressure vs. risk of further decline...Whose prediction is correct?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image

As Bitcoin (BTC) spot trading volume has plummeted by 81% since October 10, interpretations that market selling pressure is nearing its end and caution about further declines are simultaneously growing.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet NewsBTC on May 26 (local time), Bitcoin is experiencing selling pressure amidst ongoing global financial market uncertainty, with the bullish camp defending the key support level of $75,000. After failing to recover to $80,000 earlier this month and remaining below major resistance, market participants are looking for signals to determine whether the correction will stabilize or if further declines are possible.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost viewed the sharp contraction in spot trading activity as a more significant signal than the price itself. According to Darkfost, Bitcoin spot trading volume across major exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since July 2023. Binance's trading volume, which has significant market dominance, is currently around $36.4 billion, a significant decrease from approximately $198.6 billion in October 2025.

The collapse in trading volume is steep. Binance's trading volume has fallen to nearly one-fifth of its cycle high, with a decrease rate of 81%. Similar bearish trends were observed on other exchanges. Gateio's trading volume decreased by approximately 80%, and Bybit saw a 66% reduction in trading activity.

Darkfost explained that the sharp decline in Bitcoin spot trading activity reflects a macro environment that has become unfavorable for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The analysis suggests that increasing inflationary pressures, ongoing uncertainty surrounding global monetary policy, and a longer-than-expected conflict between the US and Iran have shifted investors towards safer or more traditional assets. It was also diagnosed that commodity markets, energy markets, and major stock indices have absorbed a significant portion of the capital flows that previously went into cryptocurrencies during risk-on phases.

However, Darkfost noted that this sharp drop in trading volume is not structurally a complete bearish signal. Historically, a prolonged contraction in spot trading volume has often coincided with the latter stages of a correction phase rather than the beginning of a major collapse, and as participants decrease, aggressive selling pressure to dump assets on the market also weakens. During the 2023 bear market, spot trading volume similarly fell to low levels before Bitcoin stabilized, and then volatility revived, forming the basis for a recovery phase.

In terms of technical trends, the key areas identified are the support zone at $75,000 and the resistance zone between $80,000 and $82,000. Bitcoin is holding above its 50-day moving average, aligning with a demand zone between $73,000 and $75,000 on the charts. Conversely, the 100-day and 200-day moving averages still maintain a downward slope from above, suggesting that the recovery of the $80,000 to $82,000 range and the defense of the $75,000 support level are critical criteria for determining the next direction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*