Why can't Bitcoin rise? Whales accumulated despite $1.2 billion ETF outflow?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Godasol

Bitcoin (BTC) is trapped below the $77,000 mark, losing direction amidst massive outflows from spot ETFs and the burden of US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, large-scale accumulation by whale investors and the expansion of corporate Bitcoin financial strategies continue to support medium-to-long-term bullish expectations.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on May 26 (local time), Bitcoin is currently experiencing limited movement in the $76,700-$77,200 range. Its recent 7-day return, based on CoinGecko, recorded -1.9%, and it has fallen by over 11% year-to-date. The outlet analyzed that the market is currently trapped in a box range between the $74,298 support level and the $78,095 resistance level.

The primary reason for the market's weakness was identified as outflows from US Bitcoin spot ETFs. According to SoSoValue, a total of $1.256 billion flowed out of the 11 US Bitcoin spot ETFs from May 18 to 22. In particular, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw over $1 billion in outflows over the past six trading days. The outlet diagnosed, "The outflow of funds from spot ETFs is disrupting the institutional capital flow that led the bull market in 2024-2025."

The macroeconomic environment is also acting as a burden. With the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April coming in higher than expected, market expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut have receded. The US 30-year Treasury yield recently surged to 5.121%, and the strong dollar trend continues. However, signs of some recovery in risk asset investment sentiment have emerged, with international oil prices falling by 2.78% to $97.42 per barrel due to expectations of easing tensions in Iran, and the US 10-year Treasury yield also dropping to 4.47%.

Conversely, on-chain data detected an opposite trend. The number of whale wallets holding over 1,000 BTC increased to 1,282 as of May 22, reaching its highest level this year. Glassnode analyzed that a structure is emerging where large investors with a long-term holding tendency are absorbing selling pressure from "weak hands." Furthermore, Strategy currently holds 843,738 BTC, with an average purchase price of around $75,537. TD Cowen predicted that Strategy is likely to purchase an additional approximately 100,000 BTC during the second quarter of this year.

Technically, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76,762 is acting as a key short-term support level. Conversely, the 200-day EMA at $81,536 is considered strong resistance. The outlet suggested that if Bitcoin breaks above $80,000, there could be room for an ascent to the $83,000-$85,500 range. Conversely, if $74,000 collapses, further corrections to $72,000, or even $70,000 in a severe scenario, have been raised as possibilities. The current market is analyzed as a phase where institutional fund outflows and whale/corporate accumulation trends are colliding head-on.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*