"$1,743 crash vs $7,500 surge"...Ethereum, where will its financial path lead in 2026?

▲ Ethereum (ETH)

As Ethereum (ETH) barely holds onto the $2,000 support line, its price trajectory for the remainder of 2026 is expected to vary from retesting $1,743 to a breakthrough scenario of $7,500, depending on the Glamsterdam upgrade, ETF inflows, and Bitcoin (BTC) direction.

According to crypto media outlet NewsBTC on May 26 (local time), market expert Sam Daodu analyzed that while Ethereum struggled in the first quarter and early second quarter of 2026, it managed to maintain its key support level around $2,000. Daodu explained that Ethereum started the year at approximately $3,100, then fell to $1,743 in February, marking its lowest level since early 2023. Since then, it has been trading sideways between $2,000 and $2,400, continuing a period of correction rather than a clear rebound.

The core of the bullish scenario is the Glamsterdam upgrade, scheduled for June. Daodu believes this upgrade could reduce gas fees by 78.6% and boost processing speed to up to 10,000 transactions per second. Coupled with accelerating Ethereum spot ETF inflows and Bitcoin surpassing $90,000, Ethereum could break past $4,000 in the third quarter and rise to the $5,000 to $7,500 range by year-end, according to the analysis.

The base scenario leans towards a slower recovery. Even if the Glamsterdam upgrade proceeds, market reaction may not be immediately strong, and ETF inflows, while positive, could remain slow. In this scenario, Bitcoin surpasses $85,000 but fails to create a decisive breakthrough strong enough to significantly revive risk asset preference. Ethereum is projected to cross $3,000 in the third quarter, test $4,000 in late 2026, and close the year between $3,000 and $4,200.

The bearish scenario is predicated on upgrade delays and macroeconomic pressures. Daodu suggests that the Glamsterdam upgrade could be pushed back to the fourth quarter or encounter issues during deployment. Furthermore, a resurgence of hawkish sentiment from inflation data or the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could cause Bitcoin to fall below $70,000 and trigger renewed ETF outflows.

If these conditions materialize, Ethereum may fail to hold its current support and drop below $2,085. Subsequently, it could retest the February 2026 low of around $1,743, and discussions of breaking $4,000 might be deferred to 2027 instead of 2026, according to the assessment.

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