Bitcoin Surges Towards $80,000, So Why Is XRP Facing a '57% Further Plunge' Warning?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), XRP (XRP)/ChatGPT generated image ©

As Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency in the virtual asset market, solidifies its dominance, major assets that once led the altcoin rally are now facing a severe bearish phase relative to Bitcoin. This has led to a significant shift of investment capital into Bitcoin, a phenomenon known as 'capital rotation,' and a specific timeline for this rotation has been presented, drawing keen market attention.

According to the crypto media outlet Finbold on May 25 (local time), a virtual asset technical analysis expert operating under the name ChartNerd predicted that the XRP/BTC ratio, which represents XRP (Ripple)'s value relative to Bitcoin, is highly likely to experience further declines and retest historical low levels. Based on this expert's precise analysis, the XRP/BTC ratio is expected to plunge more than 57% from its current level, falling to 0.0000073, which served as a strong support level in 2024.

Behind this pessimistic outlook lies long-term technical resistance. The XRP/BTC relative value was repeatedly thwarted and frustrated in its attempts to rise around 0.000029, a key supply barrier throughout 2025. Experts are noting that the pair has recently broken decisively below the 20-week Modified Exponential Moving Average (MEMA), a key indicator historically confirming the start of strong downward momentum. Indeed, while BTC prices surged sharply from $60,000 to $80,000 over the past three months, the XRP/BTC pair lost even its 20-week MEMA support, fully exposing the bearish trend against Bitcoin that has persisted since 2017.

For this reason, experts predict that investors will further accelerate the pace of capital movement, selling XRP and switching to Bitcoin in the coming months. However, based on historical data patterns, the fourth quarter of this year, when altcoins could show relative resilience against BTC, is analyzed to be the most critical turning point for observing capital re-entry into XRP and a recovery.

External catalysts that could further fuel the sell-off of XRP against Bitcoin in the future include the passage of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act. It is pointed out that if the Clarity Act, aimed at incorporating and legalizing virtual assets into the institutional framework, is finally passed, it could paradoxically stimulate selling sentiment in a bear market by triggering a "sell-the-news" narrative, where the market perceives the good news as the exhaustion of positive catalysts.

Furthermore, the indicator results from the on-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant show that the liquidity environment of Binance, the world's largest virtual asset exchange, has deteriorated to its worst level since January 2020, which is also a negative factor. Financial market experts diagnose that the relative bearish trend of XRP compared to the leading asset BTC will be unavoidable for some time until a clear regulatory framework is introduced in the U.S. and a genuine explosion in demand for altcoins across the board is witnessed.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*