Is the US-Iran Agreement a Positive Illusion?...Bitcoin, Risk of Further Adjustment to $72,000

▲ US, Iran, Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image

The virtual asset market showed a temporary rebound in response to geopolitical news. However, from a technical perspective, there is a risk of further price adjustments.

According to NewsBTC, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on May 24 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) price successfully rebounded as news of a potential agreement between the US and Iran spread. However, excluding these geopolitical factors, the current price structure suggests that new investors may be at risk of catching a falling knife. Virtual asset chart analyst Aksel Kibar stated via X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin's price could fall to at least around $72,000 in the short term. He pointed out that an ascending channel pattern has formed on the daily chart in recent months.

An ascending channel is a technical analysis pattern where the upper resistance line connecting the highs and the lower support line connecting the lows both trend upwards. Bitcoin has maintained an upward trend since February, forming higher highs and higher lows within this channel. However, after forming a short-term high near $82,500 recently, it entered a correction phase. Kibar predicted that if the current retracement continues, Bitcoin's price could drop to $72,500, which is the lower boundary. Accordingly, what changes occur at this support level in the coming days has emerged as a key factor determining the market's direction.

If the lower support level of $72,500 holds firm, an optimistic scenario could unfold. This would involve Bitcoin rebounding and charting an upward trajectory towards the upper resistance line again. In this case, the resistance zone to watch is just above $86,000. This is a strong resistance area where the upper boundary of the ascending channel and the 365-day moving average intersect. If Bitcoin successfully breaks above this resistance zone, a strong additional upward momentum will impact the entire virtual asset market.

Conversely, there is also the possibility that Bitcoin may fail to hold the $72,500 support level and break down. If the support line collapses, intense selling pressure could flood the market. Kibar warned that if this bearish scenario materializes, Bitcoin could fall to the $60,000 level. However, he analyzed that even if it drops to the $60,000 area, there is a support base at that point where a short-term trend reversal could occur. Kibar stated that he would only consider entering a buy position if the price definitively rises above the 365-day moving average, a key indicator of a bull market.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*