12% Chance of Retreat to $1.20? Polymarket Whales' XRP Scenario Predicted for Early June

▲ XRP/AI generated image ©

Amidst the high volatility of the global cryptocurrency market, attention is drawn to the fact that prediction market traders are betting on the continuation of downward pressure rather than optimism regarding the short-term direction of XRP (Ripple), one of the prominent altcoins.

According to crypto media outlet Finbold on May 24 (local time), traders on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket are focusing their positions primarily on lower price targets for XRP's price outlook by the upcoming June 1. Currently, XRP is trading around $1.36 (USD), rebounding more than 2% from 24 hours ago in sync with global market sentiment, but it continues an unstable sideways trend, still down over 4% on the weekly chart.

In Polymarket contracts, the scenario with the highest implied probability was XRP reaching $1.20 by June 1, which was assigned the highest probability of 12% among all predictions. In contrast, the probability of the price breaking upwards to $1.60 was only 4%, and reaching $1.80 was 1%. Bullish targets between $2.00 and $3.00 all recorded extremely low probabilities of less than 1%, indicating very low market expectations for a short-term surge.

However, the market is not predicting an extreme crash either. The probability of XRP's price falling to the $1 mark was only about 2%, and the probability of it dropping below that, such as to $0.80 or $0.60, was also less than 1%. Significant trading volume exceeding $1.5 million was concentrated in this XRP short-term direction prediction contract, demonstrating high interest. For individual contracts, $213,000 flowed into the $1.80 target, $175,000 into the $2.00 target, and $126,000 into the $1.60 target, indicating intense contention.

This conservative view of the prediction market is not unrelated to XRP's recent long-term price stagnation. XRP has mostly moved within a narrow range of $1.30 to $1.50 since 2026, which is approximately 60% lower than its July 2025 peak, despite improved network fundamentals and an influx of institutional interest. However, institutional buying remains robust; cumulative funds flowing into the XRP spot ETF market since late 2025 have exceeded $1 billion, and in April, the market recorded its largest monthly net inflow since 2026, totaling $8 million.

Consequently, the prevailing expert short-term prediction is that XRP will remain between $1.50 and $1.60 for the time being. However, for the overall long-term outlook for 2026, supported by increased spot ETF adoption and substantive utility growth, positive forecasts still coexist, suggesting a potential rise to approximately $2 under a conservative scenario, and up to $5 if a bull market emerges.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*