XRP, sudden crash to $0.7?..."Must break 13-year pattern to survive"

▲ XRP/ChatGPT generated image

An analysis suggests that XRP could return to a key support zone in 2026. Within the long-term Gaussian channel structure, the pattern of returning to the mean regression band after major past rallies has been repeated, and there is a possibility that the same pattern could reappear next year.

The Crypto Basic reported on May 23 (local time) that crypto analyst ChartNerd mentioned this possibility via X (formerly Twitter), based on the Gaussian channel structure of XRP's long-term chart. ChartNerd explained that XRP has repeatedly shown a tendency to return to the mean regression band of the Gaussian channel after strong past rallies.

ChartNerd stated, “History tells us that XRP is likely to return to the mean regression band of the Gaussian channel at some point in 2026.” He illustrated instances on the chart where XRP returned to the support zone after overheated price expansions, describing it as XRP “returning home” to its support.

This bearish outlook comes as XRP faces short-term pressure. XRP fell 4% in 24 hours to around $1.31, increasing the risk of re-entering the $1.20 range amid a broader cryptocurrency market downturn. XRP has already dropped over 60% from its high of $3.65.

The overall market weakness also weighed on XRP. With Bitcoin (BTC) falling to $74,000, risk-off sentiment driven by the macro environment stimulated sell-offs across digital assets. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 2.37%, and CoinMarketCap's Fear & Greed Index dropped to 35, indicating that investor sentiment has entered the fear zone.

In a subsequent post, ChartNerd stated that if this cycle is truly different, XRP must break the historical pattern that has shaped its market structure for over 13 years. He maintained that the monthly Gaussian channel should continue to be respected unless the broader cyclical trend changes.

ChartNerd's analysis focused on XRP's long-term structure rather than short-term price fluctuations. He observed that since XRP is still moving above the midline, a similar retracement could reappear as the current cycle extends into 2026. Previous analyses suggested that XRP could revisit $0.70 during the next major downturn, and that decline could be a low point before a potential surge towards double-digit price levels.

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