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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image
An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet confirmed a cycle bottom. In past trends, Bitcoin did not form a bottom until it touched the weekly 300-day exponential moving average, and in this cycle, it rebounded from $60,000 but failed to reach that indicator.
NewsBTC reported on May 23 (local time), citing an analysis by cryptocurrency analyst Chain Mind, that it is difficult to confirm a bottom for Bitcoin prices until they touch the 300-day exponential moving average. Chain Mind explained that Bitcoin touched the weekly 300-day exponential moving average just before forming cycle lows in 2020 and 2022.
He pointed out that the Bitcoin bottom in 2020 formed about 10% below that indicator, and the 2022 bottom formed about 15% below it. If the same pattern repeats in this cycle, Bitcoin would have to fall to approximately $58,000, and this price level could be the final bottom of this bearish cycle, according to the analysis.
Chain Mind also suggested that Bitcoin is following the trend of the 2022 bear market. He stated that Bitcoin was recently rejected at the 200-day moving average. A similar trend was observed in 2022, and this time too, Bitcoin touched the 200-day moving average near $82,000 again before falling, confirming a bearish macro structure, he analyzed.
Chain Mind believes that if the 2022 pattern repeats, Bitcoin would have to fall 40-60% from the rejection point. In this case, the actual cycle bottom was suggested to be in the $50,000-$55,000 range. Bitcoin failed to hold above the psychological price level of $80,000 and has since returned to a downward trend.
According to the article, recent bearish factors for Bitcoin include the US-Iran conflict, rising inflation, and bets on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year. Additionally, the SEC's delay in approving tokenized stocks contributed to Bitcoin's recent decline.
Another analyst, Kaleo, offered a different perspective. He noted that despite Kalshi traders betting against Bitcoin breaking $100,000 this year, he advised market participants to take a broader view and maintain a bullish outlook. Kaleo expects Bitcoin to retest the early $70,000s, then rebound to the $80,000-$90,000 range, and move within that range throughout the summer.
Kaleo further predicted that Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 and set a new all-time high in the fall and winter. He believes that if the US crypto market structure bill passes in the interim, it could trigger a massive rally for Bitcoin. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $75,400, having fallen over 2% in the past 24 hours.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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