Plunge Despite 12 Consecutive Days of ETF Fund Inflows Miracle? Will XRP's Last Defense Line of $1.30 Break?

▲ 엑스알피(XRP)/AI 생성 이미지 ©

Despite the strong on-chain bullish mechanism of continuous net fund inflows and a surge in new wallet creations, XRP (Ripple) is facing its last stronghold at $1.30, having plunged 26% compared to the end of last year, hindered by technical moving average barriers and massive break-even selling walls.

According to TradingNews, an investment specialized media outlet, on May 22 (local time), XRP is trading at around $1.35 on major exchanges, down 2.01% from the previous session, precariously treading the lower bound of a narrow sideways trading range between $1.35 and $1.38 that has persisted throughout the week. This figure represents a staggering 62% decline from its all-time high of $3.65 recorded in July 2025, signifying a deepening unique bearish structure this year compared to major asset classes including Bitcoin (BTC). According to the media report, on the daily chart, XRP's price is currently trapped in a death cross, well below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.41, the 100-day EMA at $1.48, and the 200-day EMA at $1.70, which determines the long-term trend. Each attempt at a rebound is doubly obstructed by a supply wall of 3.75 billion units in the $1.37-$1.45 range, which triggers the desire of long-term sidelined investors to break even, and a structural supply wall of 3.8 billion units at the top of the wedge channel, between $1.68 and $1.70, making the upward mathematical burden extremely heavy.

Ironically, contrary to the signs of a chart collapse, institutional investors' underlying buying interest remains robust, setting historical records. The Ripple spot ETF product line continued its net inflow streak for an astounding 12 consecutive trading days until Thursday, seemingly defying the overall outflow of virtual asset funds from the US stock market. Accumulated inflows for May alone exceeded $107.3 million, bringing the total net asset value to $1.15 billion. Furthermore, according to Santiment data, 4,300 new wallets were created on May 20 alone, achieving the fourth largest network growth spike this year. Positive signals are also evident, such as the reduction of Ripple holdings on the Binance exchange from 2.78 billion to 2.74 billion units, indicating the absorption of circulating supply into wallets. This persistent accumulation by institutions and the heightened panic-selling sentiment among retail investors on social media are also typical characteristics of a bottoming phase.

The most powerful macroeconomic breakthrough and the single key is the full floor vote in both the House and Senate for the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, scheduled for June or July. If this bill, which has already passed the Senate Banking Committee, is finally approved and Ripple secures official 'digital commodity' status under CFTC jurisdiction, it will serve as the driving force to restart fund inflows from Wall Street's giant institutions like Goldman Sachs, which recently liquidated $154 million in positions and departed. Furthermore, expectations of monetary tightening easing with the inauguration of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the expansion of new ETF lineups by Japan's SBI Group are also identified as major catalyst pipelines that could create synergy at this time.

The external macro financial environment remains hostile, coupled with the drying up of trading volume ahead of the Memorial Day holiday. This is because the US 10-year Treasury yield remains high at 4.584%, and hawkish statements from Fed officials, suggesting further interest rate hikes could be implemented if inflation rebounds, have completely frozen risk asset investment sentiment across the market. Ancillary indicators show that the RSI is hovering around 42, far from overbought, and the MACD histogram has not escaped the negative territory, indicating an ever-present risk of price rapidly pushing downwards if Middle East risks escalate over the weekend or if buying support fails.

Consequently, Ripple's short-term vision is entirely contingent on defending the last safety guardrail at $1.30. If selling pressure overwhelms accumulation support and the $1.30 level is surrendered on a daily closing basis, the long-term wedge-shaped bottom channel will be invalidated, potentially leading to a plunge that opens the door to $1.20 and then down to the structural support level of $1.00, which was last year's bottom. Conversely, if energy condenses around $1.30, breaks through the primary resistance of $1.41, and a weekly close above the trend reversal confirmation line of $1.61 is confirmed, an explosive liquidation rally of over 50% towards the Fibonacci extension target of $3.52 will be triggered along with a channel breakout, thus a thorough staggered response strategy is effective.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*