Bitcoin vs S&P500…Who will be the ultimate winner in 2030?

▲ Bitcoin vs S&P500…Who will be the ultimate winner in 2030?/AI-generated image

The gap in returns between Bitcoin and the S&P500, the representative U.S. stock index, is once again drawing attention. With Bitcoin having recorded an overwhelming growth rate over the past decade, the market is focusing on whether this trend will continue until 2030.

According to crypto media outlet Watcher.Guru on May 22 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P500 are asset classes of different natures, but they have shown clear differences in long-term returns. According to data platform Curvo, Bitcoin's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) was 87.45% from August 2011 to April 2026. In contrast, the S&P500's CAGR remained at around 15.07%.

The outlet noted that Bitcoin traded below $70 in 2013 before surging to $126,080 in October 2025. During the same period, the S&P500 maintained a steady upward trend but failed to match Bitcoin's increase in magnitude. Notably, Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, also predicted in a CNBC interview that Bitcoin would outperform the S&P500 in the long run.

However, volatility, commensurate with its high returns, has also been identified as a key risk for Bitcoin. Bitcoin surged to $68,000 in 2021, then plummeted to the $15,000 mark during the FTX collapse in November 2022. It later rebounded, breaking $100,000 for the first time in December 2024. In contrast, the S&P500 maintained a relatively stable upward trend, with the exception of some correction periods, such as during the COVID-19 shock.

The outlet concluded that investors' choices ultimately depend on the balance between returns and stability. Bitcoin has higher potential for future gains but extreme price volatility, while the S&P500 is expected to show steady growth with relatively lower risk.

The market also suggests that increasing institutional capital inflow and the integration of digital assets into the mainstream financial system are strengthening the long-term bullish case for Bitcoin. However, the outlet added that the return gap between the two assets could change at any time depending on macroeconomic variables and market volatility.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*