Bitcoin, Beware of 'Fake Breakout'..."Last Major Crash Before $110,000 Remains"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) is once again following the 'fake breakout theory' that has recurred in past bull market cycles. This analysis proposes that Bitcoin could undergo further declines before forming a final bottom, after which it has the potential to recover above $100,000.

On May 21 (local time), Bitcoinist reported, citing an analysis by an anonymous cryptocurrency analyst known as Bee on X (formerly Twitter), that Bitcoin is showing a structure similar to the fake breakout patterns that repeated twice in the past. Bee explained that the high formed in the 2017 cycle later converted into a major support level, and this process is what he calls the 'fake breakout theory' for Bitcoin's price.

According to the analysis, after Bitcoin formed an all-time high above $20,000 in 2017, that price level turned into a support line during its ascent to the next high in 2021. In the 2021 bull market, Bitcoin made a high exceeding $68,000, after which the price plummeted below $20,000. Bee explained that after this decline, the market shifted from bearish to bullish, and Bitcoin once again set a new all-time high.

Bee claims that a similar trend has appeared in the current cycle. Bitcoin recorded a new cycle high, surpassing $126,000 around October 2025, then fell below $70,000 in early 2026. Bee believes that if the fake breakout theory holds, Bitcoin could first drop to the $60,000-$65,000 range, and then find its final cycle bottom in the $52,000-$47,000 range.

However, while Bee acknowledges the similarity between past trends and the current chart structure, he stated that he does not believe this theory will hold exactly true in the current cycle. Bitcoinist also noted that the current market is under significant pressure and conveyed that despite the similar structure to past patterns, the analyst showed a cautious attitude regarding the theory's validity.

Bee's projected path on the chart also suggests a strong potential for a rebound after the final bottom is formed. The analysis indicates that if Bitcoin reaches its downside target around $50,000 and the market resets, it could then rise again to around $110,000. This implies an increase of over 120% from the estimated bottom price, and compared to the price level above $77,800 mentioned at the time of writing, it signifies a potential rebound of over 41% to $110,000.

This analysis compares Bitcoin's past cycle highs, sharp declines, support level conversions, and subsequent all-time high renewals with the current market structure. Bee presented both a possible final bottom range and a $110,000 target, but at the same time, maintained a cautious stance on whether the fake breakout theory would repeat exactly in this cycle.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*