Dogecoin, Polarization of Positions Just Before Explosion... "Whales Sweeping Up 500 Million DOGE, Is This a Real Rebound?"

▲ Dogecoin(DOGE)

Amidst the volatility of the virtual asset market, Dogecoin (DOGE) is rebounding, using a key support level as a foothold. However, upward breakthroughs are limited due to a cautious battle in the derivatives market.

According to FXStreet, a specialized virtual asset media outlet, on May 22 (local time), Dogecoin is trading above the $0.105 mark after confirming downward rigidity at a major support level early in the week. Supply distribution data from on-chain analytics platform Santiment reveals that large whales absorbed selling pressure during the recent price correction period. In particular, ultra-large whales holding 10 million to 100 million DOGE collectively accumulated 500 million DOGE since May 17. Conversely, small and medium-sized whales holding between 100,000 and 10 million DOGE sold a total of 330 million DOGE during the same period, cutting their losses.

Despite this low-point buying spree, derivatives indicators reflect extreme mixed sentiment, suppressing further gains for Dogecoin. The long/short ratio on Coinglass, a virtual asset derivatives analysis platform, is 0.94, nearing its lowest point in a month. A ratio below 1 indicates that there are more short-position traders betting on a decline. On the other hand, the weighted funding rate for derivatives open interest recorded 0.0082% today after turning positive last Monday. A positive funding rate is an indicator that the power of forces expecting a rise has strengthened, and these two conflicting indicators are fiercely clashing, preventing a clear directional decision.

Technical indicators also show strong compression within a narrow price range. Dogecoin is currently finding support above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.104, maintaining a flow between neutral and bearish. On the upside, the 100-day EMA at $0.106 acts as a resistance level. The gap with the 200-day EMA at $0.122, which determines the long-term trend, remains wide, meaning downward pressure has not yet been resolved. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also hovering around 49, having lost its direction, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly in negative territory, suggesting that strong buying momentum is not yet taking hold.

In the short term, for Dogecoin to activate a full-fledged bullish scenario, it must decisively break through the 100-day EMA at $0.106. If this barrier falls, upward acceleration could lead to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.112. Subsequently, it could attempt to break through the 200-day EMA at $0.122, which is intertwined with the long-term downtrend line. Conversely, if buying momentum falters and the 50-day EMA support at $0.104 collapses, a retreat to the horizontal demand zone at $0.102 is inevitable. If even the $0.102 level is breached downwards on a daily closing basis, there is a risk of a decline to the $0.0885 level, where buying pressure previously entered.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*