Glassnode's former lead analyst, Checkmate, diagnosed Bitcoin's recent retreat to $60,000 as the market's true 'capitulation phase,' estimating an 80% probability that a bottom has been formed. He analyzed that the market has now entered a bull market, but a long period of sideways trading within a box range is needed to restore confidence, similar to 2016 or 2023. As evidence, he cited the weekly RSI falling to a historical low of 26 and the entry into a 'Q10 event,' which signifies the top 10% oversold zone. According to on-chain data, the average cost basis for active investors is approximately $78,000, and major resistance levels are presented at $78,000, $85,000, and $95,000. He projected that ETFs and MicroStrategy are currently defending against selling pressure, and if Bitcoin breaks above $100,000 in the future, a significant inflow of capital from large institutions will begin.
