Bitcoin, aggressive buying disappears...plunges to a 4-month low?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), cryptocurrency crash/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) demand has cooled sharply in recent days, raising the possibility of a long-term sideways trend or further decline. Bitcoin has struggled to maintain key support levels after being blocked by resistance above $80,000, and the simultaneous weakening of the spot market and US spot Bitcoin ETF flows has increased price pressure.

Cointelegraph reported on May 21 (local time) that Bitcoin demand has fallen to its lowest level in four months. According to Capriole Investments' Bitcoin nominal demand indicator, Bitcoin demand has remained in negative territory since December 22, 2025, briefly improved at the end of February, and then plummeted again to minus 3,138 BTC on Thursday.

CryptoQuant stated in its recent weekly cryptocurrency report, "Overall Bitcoin demand has shifted to a net contraction phase," adding, "Spot nominal demand is contracting at a slightly faster pace than the previous week." Glassnode also analyzed in its latest on-chain weekly report that the cumulative spot trading volume delta across all exchanges remained in negative territory even during the decline phase in the upper $70,000s.

Glassnode stated, "While Bitcoin remains relatively robust structurally, recent spot positioning data suggests that widespread spot accumulation has not yet re-emerged." US spot Bitcoin ETFs have also returned to a net selling trend, and the 30-day change in ETF holdings has fallen to its lowest level in approximately three months. Glassnode commented on this, saying, "Direct spot demand is becoming less aggressive near the top of the current price range."

Bitcoin rebounded 38% from a macro low of $60,000 to $82,800, recovering the true market average of $78,300. Glassnode explained that this indicator is a price model that tracks the average acquisition cost of actively traded Bitcoin supply and has historically served as a baseline separating bear and bull market phases. However, the recovery to this level is only a necessary condition for a structural shift, not a sufficient condition, and a sustained sideways trend around this model is required for weeks to months in the pre-bull market phase, it analyzed.

Glassnode stated that a deeper correction from current levels could reinterpret the recent rebound as a short-term peak within an ongoing bear market. CryptoQuant also diagnosed that the combination of deteriorating spot demand and ETF flows simultaneously has historically been more consistent with new price weakness than stable sideways movement. Some analysts pointed to slowing momentum, decreased retail investor activity, selling pressure in the futures market, and weakening technical structure, seeing a risk of Bitcoin falling to $65,000 in the coming weeks.

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