Bitcoin, thought it was a rally, but next is a sharp drop?...Analyst "goes to $45,000"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Price Drop

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) is once again following a pattern similar to the 2021 market cycle, and the next phase may not be an ascent but rather an additional sharp decline. Cryptocurrency analyst Merlijn The Trader divided Bitcoin's price movement into six phases and assessed that the current market is in a critical section, poised to enter the fourth phase.

Bitcoinist reported on May 20 (local time) that Merlijn The Trader presented an analysis on X (formerly Twitter) applying Bitcoin's current price movement to the 2021 market cycle structure. Merlijn The Trader analyzed that three phases have already been completed in this structure, and a sharp drop in Bitcoin's price could occur in the fourth phase.

The six phases he presented are distribution, small sideways movement, redistribution, accumulation, re-accumulation, and final rally. In the 2021 period, Bitcoin formed a distribution phase near the cycle high, then went through small sideways movement and redistribution phases, and subsequently entered a deeper accumulation phase after a major bear market collapse.

Merlijn The Trader observed that the same structure is repeating in the current market. According to his analysis, Bitcoin entered a downtrend after reaching an all-time high of $126,060 in October 2025, and since then, the distribution phase and small sideways movement phase have already been completed. The price movement since late January was classified as the redistribution phase.

The key variable is $78,000. Merlijn The Trader believes that if Bitcoin holds $78,000, it could skip the fourth phase, a deep accumulation zone, and move directly into the re-accumulation phase and a large upward trend. Conversely, if $78,000 breaks, the next target could be an accumulation zone between $45,000 and $59,000, he analyzed.

If this price range materializes, the extent of the correction would not be small. Bitcoin fell below $77,000 on May 18 and was trading around $77,500 at the time of writing. A drop from this level to $59,000 would be approximately a 23.8% correction, and a fall to $45,000 would represent about a 42% decrease from the current price.

Merlijn The Trader's analysis suggests that a stronger bullish scenario is possible only if Bitcoin forms closing prices above $78,000 for several weeks. As the current price fluctuates below this baseline, the recovery and maintenance of $78,000 have emerged as a key turning point for the short-term trend.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*