It's a condensation phase, not a collapse! Bitcoin's bullish signals have revived

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As Bitcoin (BTC) explores its direction in the $77,000 range, an analysis suggests that on-chain indicators are actually leaning towards a medium-to-long-term upward trend. However, with the outflow of funds from US Bitcoin spot ETFs and an increase in inflows to exchanges, short-term volatility is still considered high.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on May 20 (local time), Bitcoin traded at approximately $77,446 during the New York session. BTC has formed an ascending channel since its low of around $60,000 in February, and the $75,000-$76,000 range is currently drawing attention as a key support level. Especially as the 100-day moving average overlaps with this range, some market participants interpret it as a signal of a medium-to-long-term bottom.

The outlet cited the conflict between on-chain data and institutional fund flows as a key variable in the current market. For instance, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is currently at 0.29, showing a similar trend to just before Bitcoin resumed its bull run near $40,000 at the end of 2023. The average Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) price range was also presented as $94,849, with an analysis suggesting approximately 22% additional upside potential from the current price.

However, short-term supply and demand remain unstable. A total net outflow of $648.6 million occurred in US Bitcoin spot ETFs in one day, and approximately 72,000 BTC were moved to exchanges. The outlet interpreted this as a signal of short-term selling pressure. Furthermore, fund outflows are continuing from major ETFs such as BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity FBTC, and an analysis suggests that some institutional investors are selling near their break-even points.

Technically, the bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) near $80,000 has been identified as a key resistance zone. If BTC breaks through this zone and recovers $82,000, an upward scenario to $88,000-$90,000 could open up. Conversely, if the $72,962 support level breaks, there's a possibility of retesting the demand zone in the early $70,000s. The current Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving in the mid-50s, a neutral level, and the market is showing a sideways trend rather than a clear direction.

The outlet characterized the current market as a 'correction phase within an uptrend.' The Fear & Greed Index remains in the 'Fear' zone at a level of 25, and open interest and leverage are also not showing signs of overheating. TradingNews stated, 'If ETF fund flows turn back to net inflows, the on-chain bullish scenario could gain full momentum,' adding, 'Currently, BTC is closer to a phase of energy condensation rather than collapse.'

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*