All Eyes on the US Fed's Words: Will Bitcoin's $77,000 Support Level Hold This Time?

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Amid heightened tension in the virtual asset market ahead of the announcement of key indicators that will gauge the direction of the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy, major coins are collectively stepping up to support their bottom lines, testing their downward rigidity.

According to investment media FXStreet on May 20 (local time), market participants are keenly awaiting the release of the April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, scheduled for the early morning of May 21 KST. Although the benchmark interest rate was frozen at 3.50% to 3.75% at the time, attention is focused on the hawkish (monetary tightening preference) members' statements due to higher-than-expected April inflation figures and macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from military tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The market has already overwhelmingly priced in a 96.7% chance of a rate freeze at the regular meeting on June 17, but the possibility of additional rate hikes at year-end cannot be ruled out if inflationary pressures persist.

Amid such macroeconomic pressures, Bitcoin (BTC) has pulled back from its May high of $82,500 and is now consolidating, defending the $77,000 support level. Currently, BTC is trading around $77,274, with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76,878 and the 50-day EMA at $76,761 closely positioned, acting as short-term support. However, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remaining in negative territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50, upward momentum is weak. For a full rally to resume, the resistance level of the 200-day EMA at $81,644 must be reclaimed, and if selling pressure intensifies, the $69,896 level is expected to be the final stronghold.

In contrast, the trend of open interest for major assets in the derivatives market shows a mixed picture. Bitcoin's futures open interest decreased to $56.29 billion as of Wednesday from $57.17 billion the previous day, reflecting investor caution regarding short-term gains. This is significantly below the monthly peak of $64.17 billion recorded on May 6. Meanwhile, Ethereum's (ETH) futures open interest slightly increased from $31.34 billion to $31.5 billion the previous day, and XRP (Ripple) also moderately rose from $2.83 billion to $2.93 billion, reflecting the flow of funds in the market.

From a technical perspective, the altcoin sector is still struggling with upward resistance pressure. ETH is currently trading around $2,132, having fallen below key moving averages and failing to shake off its short-term bearish bias. The 50-day EMA at $2,248 and the 200-day EMA at $2,547 stand as strong resistance levels. On the downside, the ability to defend the $2,055 level, which is the previous trendline breakout area, will be a critical watershed for determining future direction. If this support level breaks, further declines could extend, but if it holds, it could provide a springboard for a technical rebound to alleviate oversold conditions.

XRP is also under pressure, battling around the lower Bollinger Band at $1.37. The area around $1.41, where the 50-day EMA and the Bollinger Band centerline converge, acts as a short-term supply zone, blocking upward movement. The daily MACD remains in negative territory, and the RSI is in the low 40s, indicating persistent downward pressure. While buyers are attempting to defend the price at the $1.35 level to solidify support, experts diagnose that if this lower support level breaks, the correction phase could deepen further.

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