Bitcoin, if you bought $1,000 on Trump's inauguration day?...Calculations show 'negative'

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Investors who purchased Bitcoin (BTC) on the inauguration day of U.S. President Donald Trump are currently in a loss-making position. Bitcoin, which exceeded $100,000 immediately after the inauguration due to expectations, has since repeated sharp fluctuations, and the $1,000 investment has shrunk to approximately $745 as of this article.

According to 24/7 Wall Street on May 19 (local time), on January 20, 2025, the day of President Trump's inauguration, Bitcoin rose to $109,000 during trading before retreating to around $102,000 as inauguration expectations cooled. If $1,000 had been invested at that time, approximately 0.0098 BTC could have been purchased. With Bitcoin currently hovering around $76,000 as of this article, the value of that holding has decreased to approximately $745, and the loss rate against the principal was calculated to be 25.5%.

Immediately after the inauguration, the trend quickly became volatile. Bitcoin fell to $100,600 on February 1, reducing the value of the $1,000 investment to approximately $986. In March, selling pressure increased, pushing it down to $77,400, and by the end of Q1 2025, it closed at $82,445. This was a 19.2% drop from the $102,000 purchase price, and the investment amount decreased to approximately $808.

A rebound occurred in Q2. Bitcoin rose approximately 30% from $82,500 to $107,150, and the investment value recovered to approximately $1,050, temporarily entering a profit zone. In Q3, it also recorded gains of 8.2% in July and 5.31% in September, but a 6.43% drop in August limited the quarterly rise. By the end of Q3, Bitcoin had climbed to $114,000, and the investment value had grown to approximately $1,118.

The peak did not last long. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6, pushing the $1,000 investment value to approximately $1,235. However, market sentiment turned bearish in Q4 2025, causing Bitcoin to fall by 23%, followed by an additional 22% drop in Q1 2026. Monthly losses continued for five consecutive months from October 2025 to February 2026, and by the end of Q1 2026, Bitcoin had fallen to $68,200, reducing the investment value to approximately $669.

24/7 Wall Street analyzed that two catalysts are needed for Bitcoin to return to a profit zone. The first is the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill. If the bill passes votes in the Senate and House in June and is enacted into law by the first week of July, regulatory uncertainty would decrease, and Bitcoin could recover to $100,000 in Q3. In this scenario, the $1,000 investment would recover to approximately $980, reducing the loss rate to about 2%.

The second variable is the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs. 24/7 Wall Street reported that Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $1.32 billion in March and $1.97 billion in April, but in May, outflows occurred on 5 of the recent 7 trading days. If an average daily inflow of approximately $300 million returns, Bitcoin could recover to $100,000 in Q3, and if it rises to $150,000 by Q4 2026, the $1,000 investment could increase to approximately $1,470, the analysis stated.

However, downside risks remain. 24/7 Wall Street suggested that if geopolitical tensions worsen, such as the U.S. attacking Iran and peace negotiations failing, investors might shift from Bitcoin to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and crude oil. In this scenario, Bitcoin could fall to around $70,000, and the $1,000 investment value could decrease to approximately $686, further delaying the recovery to the break-even point of about $980.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*