1 Billion XRP to Be Released on June 1st… Ripple Fails to Break $1.50, Will it Face a Supply Bomb Again?

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As Ripple's escrow release date, which arrives every month without fail, approaches in two weeks, investors' attention is focused on how the 1 billion XRP (Ripple) set to be released into the market will act as a variable in the price direction. Amid converging concerns about oversupply due to a large-scale release and optimism that it is merely a routine procedure, XRP's technical indicators, which have recently struggled to break the $1.50 resistance, are maintaining a precarious balance.

According to crypto-specialized media Finbold on May 17th (local time), Ripple plans to release 1 billion XRP into the market through its regular escrow release scheduled for June 1st. This is part of Ripple's long-term plan, initiated in December 2017, to gradually unlock the 55 billion XRP it holds. This procedure, conducted on the 1st of every month, is an institutional mechanism designed to increase token distribution transparency and prevent unexpected large-scale supply.

While 1 billion units are typically released, it is rare for Ripple to immediately flood the entire amount into the circulating market. According to the media, past precedents show that Ripple has re-locked approximately 600 million to 800 million of the released supply into new escrow contracts. Consequently, the net circulating supply actually added to the market is expected to be around 200 million to 400 million units, which will likely be used for strategic purposes such as securing operating funds and supporting partnerships.

Market participants anticipate that the impact of this release on the price will be limited. Since it is an already announced schedule and the actual inflow of supply tends to be adjusted, the market is likely to react more sensitively to overall investor sentiment in the virtual asset market and regulatory legislative trends than to this specific event. Currently, XRP's circulating supply is gradually increasing, maintaining between approximately 61 billion and 62 billion out of a maximum issuance of 100 billion.

Looking at the price chart, XRP continues its tough battle amidst short-term volatility. As of the time of reporting, XRP's price is $1.42, down approximately 3.6% from 24 hours ago, and also showing a 0.6% decline on a weekly basis. Technically, it is slightly above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $1.39, securing a short-term support level, but it is considerably distant from the long-term trend line, the 200-day SMA ($1.74), suggesting that a full transition to an upward trend will require time.

Ultimately, the upcoming escrow release on June 1st is expected to be a crucial turning point for XRP as it attempts to reclaim the $1.50 resistance level. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61.22 as of the 14th, remaining in a neutral zone, the key question is whether institutional tailwinds, such as the Clarity Act, will support the process of the supply being absorbed. Global investors' eyes are fixed on the beginning of June, wondering whether Ripple's regular supply release will serve as a stepping stone to a bull market through healthy market absorption, or become an additional price pressure factor.

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