XRP, the Real Decisive Point is 'Here'... If it Fails to Break $2.4, the Bull Market Landscape Will Be Shaken

▲ XRP/AI-generated image

The 21-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 2-month chart has been identified as a key criterion for determining whether XRP's long-term bull market will continue. As XRP maintains a consolidation pattern within its long-term structure, whether it defends this indicator has been presented as the dividing line between maintaining a bullish trend and a macroscopic collapse.

The Crypto Basic reported on May 14 (local time), citing analysis from market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, that XRP is still defending a key long-term technical structure it has maintained for years. According to the analysis, XRP has experienced repeated volatility and corrections since its peak of $3.6 in July 2025, but it continues to trade above the 21 EMA on the 2-month chart, maintaining a long-term higher low structure.

EGRAG CRYPTO diagnosed that XRP has been consolidating within a multi-year ascending triangle pattern since 2017. During this period, XRP has consistently formed higher lows but has faced continuous resistance around $3.36. The analysis explained that this long-term consolidation while defending key support is similar to structures seen in major assets like Tesla (TSLA) before large cycle expansions.

Currently, XRP's key confirmation zone is between $2.40 and $3.36. EGRAG CRYPTO believes that whether XRP reclaims this resistance zone is a true bullish confirmation signal. The Crypto Basic reported that this range is 68-135% higher than the current market price. The analysis suggests that if XRP reaches this zone, it will be closer to breaking multi-year resistance, increasing the possibility of a significant price expansion.

However, downside risks were also raised. EGRAG CRYPTO estimated a 40-50% chance that XRP bottomed out at $1.12 last February. Conversely, the possibility of a final capitulation sell-off was presented at 50-55%. In this scenario, XRP could retest the ascending support trendline near Binance's lowest wick price of $0.77.

In an upside scenario, if XRP breaks above the overhead resistance, an expansion path towards the $7 to $13 range was presented. The Crypto Basic stated that reaching these price levels would represent increases of 390% and 809%, respectively. While aggressive long-term projections exceeding $200 were also mentioned on the chart, EGRAG CRYPTO emphasized that such a scenario is not solely possible through technical structure but requires the liquidity cycle of the entire cryptocurrency market.

Currently, the key for XRP is to continue defending the 21 EMA on the 2-month chart while reclaiming the $2.40 to $3.36 resistance zone. Whether this zone is reclaimed has emerged as a critical criterion for determining XRP's long-term bullish continuation and the risk of further declines.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*