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▲ Bitcoin (BTC), decline, bear market / ChatGPT generated image
Bitcoin (BTC) is once again being tested in front of the 200-day moving average, raising investors' expectations, but a warning has emerged that this rebound may not be a resumption of the bull market, but rather a final illusion within a bear market.
In a video uploaded to his YouTube channel on May 15 (local time), crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that Bitcoin is facing resistance around the 200-day moving average, and even if it breaks through that level, it is difficult to conclude that it is a bull market transition. Cowen explained that in the bear markets of 2014 and 2019, Bitcoin also surpassed the 200-day moving average for a while before eventually turning downwards, adding, “You shouldn't assume it's a bull market transition just because it crosses the 200-day moving average.”
Cowen analyzed that the current market structure is likely to resemble the bear market rebounds of 2014 and 2019 more than those of 2018 and 2022. He explained that in 2014 and 2019, monthly Heikin-Ashi candles temporarily turned green during the bear market, and there was also a trend of surpassing the 200-day moving average. However, Cowen drew the line, stating that such movements are not confirmed signals of a bull market, but rather stronger rebounds occurring within a bear market.
The short-term top was suggested to be around $85,000. Cowen analyzed that in past bear market rebounds of 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin's upward momentum often stalled around the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level after major lows. The Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level calculated based on the current high and low is located around $85,000. He explained that if Bitcoin breaks through the 200-day moving average, it could rally further to this price range, but it is difficult to see this movement alone as a change in market fundamentals.
Cowen pinpointed June as a crucial turning point. He analyzed that in 2014 and 2019, Bitcoin rallied until June before forming a peak and declining, while in 2018 and 2022, a bottom was formed around June. As Bitcoin continues its rebound until mid-May, he believes the scenario of forming a peak in June is more natural if it doesn't immediately decline. He further predicted that the final bear market bottom could appear around Q4 2026.
Correlation with the stock market was also presented as a basis for the decline scenario. Cowen analyzed that in 2018, the US stock market saw an initial correction at the beginning of the year, then faltered again in the second half, and the second correction acted as a factor that deepened the Bitcoin bear market. He stated that this year, Bitcoin has underperformed the stock market by about 14% to 15%, gold by about 13% to 14%, energy by about 27% to 28%, and silver by about 20% to 21%. Cowen assessed that in midterm election years, assets related to stocks, gold, silver, energy, and manufacturing performed better than Bitcoin.
Cowen stated that he holds some Bitcoin but has reduced his allocation compared to the bull market period. He said that he might consider increasing his allocation at the end of the year when Bitcoin creates clearer bottom signals and various indicators point to a low. Currently, the Bitcoin market is in a high-risk rebound phase where the breakthrough of the 200-day moving average, the $85,000 resistance, the possibility of a June turning point, and the Q4 2026 bottom scenario are all intertwined.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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