Bitcoin, Don't Believe in $80,000 Recovery Yet... 'Price Cut in Half' Warning Emerges

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Decline / AI Generated Image

Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded above the $80,000 mark, but one cryptocurrency analyst has diagnosed that the final bottom has not yet been reached. The recent rise may be a temporary rebound within a bear market rather than a full recovery, and Bitcoin could fall further to around $43,000 before turning into a sustained uptrend.

According to Bitcoinist on May 14 (local time), crypto analyst Bee claimed in a chart analysis published on X (formerly Twitter) on May 11 that Bitcoin has only one more downward leg left to reach its historical cycle bottom. He analyzed that Bitcoin has formed several upward channels within a larger downward channel since its cycle high exceeding $126,200 in October 2025.

After its 2025 peak, Bitcoin plummeted to $82,167, forming a low, then consolidated for several months before retesting the upper bound of an upward channel near $97,855. However, after forming a lower high in that region, the downtrend resumed, and in February 2026, it fell to $59,900, creating another low. While some analysts consider this range to be the final cycle bottom, Bee believes that the bottom has not yet been confirmed.

Bee stated that although Bitcoin continued to rebound above $83,000, this range also represents the second lower high since its all-time high in 2025. He predicted that after facing resistance at this price level, Bitcoin could drop to $43,035 in its next move. This would be a decline of over 45% from the price range exceeding $79,000 at the time of writing.

Bee explained that bear market cycles typically last around 365 days. As of the time he published his analysis, the current Bitcoin bear market has been ongoing for 217 days, and considering this time frame, he argues that the final capitulation phase is still ahead. Despite recent price rebounds and improved investor sentiment, the market structure is judged to be heavily tilted towards bearishness.

However, Bee believes that once the final bottom is formed, the market will reset, and a sustained recovery towards $100,000 could begin by 2027. The key is that a $100,000 recovery is unlikely to occur before the bottom is established. The Bitcoin market is currently in a phase where short-term rebounds and long-term bearish structures conflict, and whether the $43,035 decline scenario materializes has emerged as a key variable for the next cycle transition.

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