Cardano, indicator that predicted 73% drop turns 'bullish'... Has it really bottomed out?

▲ Cardano (ADA)

An analysis suggests that Cardano (ADA) has shown technical reversal signals after a long period of correction. Analyst Ali Martinez stated that his most trusted SuperTrend indicator on Cardano's daily chart has turned bullish, suggesting a potential short-term rebound towards the $0.33 resistance zone.

NewsBTC reported on May 14 (local time) that the SuperTrend indicator, which Martinez has used to track Cardano's long-term trend reversals, recently switched to a buy signal. He explained that the indicator issued a sell signal on September 25, 2025, accurately identifying the subsequent 73% drop in ADA's price.

Martinez believes this signal indicates that Cardano's local exhaustion phase has ended and a trend reversal has begun. He suggested that ADA could first rise to the $0.33 resistance zone, and if upward momentum is maintained, the second target would be $0.42. Conversely, the key price that would invalidate this bullish scenario was given as $0.25.

On-chain indicators were also mentioned as factors supporting expectations for a technical reversal. According to Santiment, large wallets holding over 1 million ADA currently hold 25.09 billion ADA, which accounts for 67.47% of the total supply. This holding amount is an all-time high for wallets with over 1 million ADA, and the supply proportion is the highest since July 2020.

Santiment analyzed that major Cardano stakeholders have consistently increased their existing supply since December 2023. Despite Cardano's market cap decreasing by 71% over the past nine months, large holders, including "millionaire-tier" wallets, have continued to add ADA during price discount periods.

However, the high concentration in large wallets has a dual nature. Accumulation during a downturn can be interpreted as confidence in long-term holding, but when prices rebound in the future, whether these wallets continue to accumulate, observe, or distribute their holdings during a bullish phase could dictate price movements.

NewsBTC reported that with the SuperTrend buy signal and whale accumulation data appearing together, Cardano has formed a rare clear short-term structure during its correction period. ADA was trading at $0.2664 at the time of writing, and the defense of the $0.25 support level and the breakthrough of $0.33 were presented as key variables determining short-term direction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*