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Greetings, this is Derivatives Fox. As of November 1, 2026, the global financial market is showing somewhat unstable trends. The US 10-year Treasury yield recorded 4.98%, and the 2-year Treasury yield recorded 4.61%, maintaining a long-short spread of 0.37%. The effective federal funds rate is 3.88%, and the dollar index remains high at 121.3202. This generally suggests that a tightening monetary policy stance is continuing.
The US stock market is also not easy. The S&P 500 fell 1.77% to $755.72, and the NASDAQ 100 fell 3.47% to $690.49, with all major indices showing significant declines. In particular, the rise of the VIX fear index to 18.41 can be interpreted as a warning sign of increased market volatility and weakened investor sentiment.
Amidst this macroeconomic and traditional financial market instability, the cryptocurrency market is showing mixed trends. The total market capitalization recorded $2625.9B, and the 24-hour trading volume was $73.3B, with Bitcoin dominance remaining high at 59.24864631397082%. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a slight increase of 0.32% over 24 hours, but on a 7-day basis, it fell 3.62% to trade at $77469.0. Ethereum (ETH) also rose 0.53% over 24 hours but fell 3.64% on a 7-day basis to $2254.04. Major altcoins such as XRP, SOL, and DOGE also saw slight declines or flat movements over 24 hours, and all failed to avoid a decline on a 7-day basis.
The Fear & Greed Index, an investor sentiment indicator, recorded 34 (Fear), a slight improvement from the previous day's 30 (Fear), but it still remains in the fear stage. In other words, overall market sentiment is still judged to be contracted.
Amidst this generally subdued market atmosphere, some altcoins recorded significant gains in the Binance USDT-M futures market. Bitcoin's funding rate remains negligible at 0.01%, and Ethereum's funding rate is -0.00%, virtually neutral. This may suggest that overall leveraged long positions in the market are not excessively concentrated. However, the surge in individual altcoins should be viewed with caution as it might be driven by individual supply and demand factors or specific themes rather than the overall market trend.
AINUSDT rose +29.48% over 24 hours, recording $0.23434. The 24-hour trading volume is $593.9M, and Open Interest (OI) is $265.7M, indicating a substantial scale. The funding rate remains positive at 0.03%, suggesting that new long positions are flowing in and expectations for further gains are being reflected.
Looking at recent daily data, it recorded explosive gains of +87.08% and +123.76% from October 26 to October 27, respectively, and continued its strength with +25.14% and +29.71% on October 30 and 31. Trading volume also increased with the surge, reaching $722.8M on October 27 and $593.8M on October 31. This suggests a strong trend-following buying pressure. However, as of November 1, the opening price of $0.23471 and closing price of $0.23443 show a -0.12% decrease with a very small trading volume of $37K. This means that the short-term upward momentum may have been exhausted, or it may have entered a consolidation phase after a sharp rise.
In conclusion, AINUSDT showed a strong trend-following upward movement due to new long inflows, but short-term overheating warning signals are currently detected. The probability of trend continuation is 50%, while the probability of a short-term pullback is also judged to be 50%. The risk of new entry at this point is assessed as high, and a key variable to watch is the inflow of additional trading volume.
EVAAUSDT is trading at $1.4278, having risen +25.13% over 24 hours. The 24-hour trading volume is $61.2M, and Open Interest (OI) is $11.9M. The funding rate is positive at 0.03%, indicating a dominance of long positions.
Daily data shows explosive surges of +120.29% on October 27, +29.47% on October 28, and +25.16% on October 31, among others. Particularly on October 28, it formed a high of $1.61 with a high trading volume of $536.7M. However, it tends to be accompanied by rapid volatility, such as a -20.19% drop on October 29. As of November 1, it shows a minimal change of -0.06% from an opening price of $1.4281 to a closing price of $1.4273, with a low trading volume of $63K.
EVAAUSDT is continuing its upward trend driven by strong buying pressure, but given its history of repeated sharp rises and falls, it is time to be wary of high volatility. The probability of trend continuation is 55%, and the probability of a short-term pullback is 45%. The risk of new entry at this point is assessed as moderate, and a key variable to watch is whether the intraday volatility expands.
ESPORTSUSDT rose +24.57% over 24 hours, recording $0.008831. The 24-hour trading volume is $86.4M, and the most notable part is that Open Interest (OI) is very high at $835.3M. The funding rate also remains quite high at 0.05%.
Looking at daily data, it showed weakness with -7.44% on October 29 and -2.66% on October 30, before recording a sharp rise of +25.01% on October 31. This surge was accompanied by a trading volume of $86.4M. High OI and funding rate indicate that long positions are excessively concentrated at the current price level. As of November 1, the opening price of $0.008864 and closing price of $0.008822 show a slight decrease of -0.47%, with a very minimal trading volume of $28K.
ESPORTSUSDT is in a situation where a short-term pullback is highly likely due to excessively formed long positions after a sharp rise. The probability of trend continuation is 30%, and the probability of a short-term pullback is 70%. The risk of new entry at this point is assessed as high, and key variables to watch are further increases in the funding rate and decreases in OI.
LSKUSDT is trading at $0.24467, having risen +19.38% over 24 hours. The 24-hour trading volume is $430.5M, and Open Interest (OI) is $41.1M. What is notable is that the funding rate is negative at -0.12%.
Daily data shows a continuous upward trend for 3 trading days, starting with +14.29% on October 29, followed by +7.74% on October 30, and +18.92% on October 31. Particularly on October 31, it recorded a high of $0.31879 with a high trading volume of $430.2M. The fact that the funding rate remains negative despite the price increase suggests that short positions still exist, or that the recent surge may have been accelerated by short covering (short squeeze). As of November 1, the opening price of $0.24373 and closing price of $0.24441 show a +0.28% increase, with a low trading volume of $214K.
LSKUSDT can be interpreted as attempting a trend reversal, along with a short squeeze. It is interesting that the price is rising despite a negative funding rate. The probability of trend continuation is 60%, and the probability of a short-term pullback is 40%. The risk of new entry at this point is assessed as moderate, and key variables to watch are the funding rate turning positive and continued increases in OI.
AIOTUSDT rose +21.10% over 24 hours, recording $0.08803. The 24-hour trading volume is $75.9M, and Open Interest (OI) is $55.6M. The funding rate is slightly positive at 0.01%.
Looking at daily data, it showed relatively gentle movements until recording a large increase of +21.39% on October 31. The rise on October 31 was accompanied by a trading volume of $75.9M, reaching a high of $0.0943. The fact that the funding rate is not extremely high allows for the interpretation that it is not yet in an overheating phase. As of November 1, the opening price of $0.08824 and closing price of $0.08805 show a -0.22% decrease, with a very low trading volume of $41K.
AIOTUSDT can be expected to form a gradual trend, given that its funding rate and OI indicators do not yet show overheating. The probability of trend continuation is 65%, and the probability of a short-term pullback is 35%. The risk of new entry at this point is assessed as moderate, and a key variable to watch is whether it can continue its upward trend with increasing trading volume without drastic changes in funding rate and OI.
MAGMAUSDT (+18.35%), MORPHOUSDT (+14.23%), LITUSDT (+14.02%), UAIUSDT (+13.62%), and STXUSDT (+12.85%) also recorded double-digit gains. Among these, MAGMAUSDT and UAIUSDT maintained positive funding rates, MORPHOUSDT had a slightly negative funding rate, LITUSDT had a slightly positive funding rate, and STXUSDT recorded a relatively high negative funding rate (-0.10%). This suggests that the funding rate structure and characteristics of open interest differ across individual assets. Especially in cases like STXUSDT where the price increased despite a negative funding rate, the influence of short covering cannot be ruled out. However, generally, for these assets as well, considering the open interest size relative to the 24-hour trading volume, it seems likely that they moved due to individual supply and demand rather than a sharp bias in a specific direction.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market is showing prominent strength in some altcoins in the futures market, despite the 7-day weakness of Bitcoin and Ethereum and instability in traditional financial markets. This suggests that overall market liquidity may be concentrated in assets with specific themes or individual catalysts. Particularly, an increase accompanied by high funding rates and open interest can be interpreted as a short-term overheating signal, while assets with low funding rates despite price increases can be seen as short squeezes or relatively less overheated buying pressure.
Ultimately, the individual strength of altcoins appearing amidst an overall market downturn is likely to be accompanied by high volatility. Therefore, a cautious approach is required, and it will be important to closely observe the trends in funding rates, open interest, and trading volume for each asset.
Amidst macroeconomic and traditional stock market instability, the cryptocurrency market is seeing individual altcoin strength despite BTC/ETH weakness. Signals of new long inflows and overheating warnings are detected for AINUSDT, ESPORTSUSDT, etc., and the possibility of a short squeeze for LSKUSDT cannot be ruled out. Overall market sentiment remains in the 'fear' stage, suggesting that altcoin surges are likely to be accompanied by high volatility.
AINUSDT: Check for additional trading volume inflow.
EVAAUSDT: Be wary of increased intraday volatility.
ESPORTSUSDT: Watch for further increases in funding rate and decreases in OI.
LSKUSDT: Observe for funding rate turning positive and sustained increases in OI.
AIOTUSDT: Monitor for continued upward trend with increasing trading volume without drastic changes in funding rate/OI.
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funkybeetle28
·오 좀 튀는 놈들 있네, 꿀잼 각이야
이든210
·시장 흐름이 심상치 않네.
길455
·어휴, 이거 봐도 모르겠는데 이래도 괜찮은 걸까요
힐링타임49
·이건 참교육이다 ㅋㅋㅋㅋ
red.orbit
·지켜보는 중