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Hello, this is Seo Jin-hyuk, a macro strategist from Wall Street. On November 1, 2026, we once again stand at a point where we must find an answer to the key question, "Where is the market looking now?" Today, the market presents a somewhat dualistic picture, showing strong speculative movements in certain sectors within the crypto market despite the unstable flow of the macroeconomy.
The US stock market could not escape weakness amid solid interest rate burdens and a strong dollar, which led to a contraction in risk appetite. However, even amidst these macroeconomic headwinds, some altcoins surged, suggesting that market attention is diversifying. We will sharply analyze the key trends of today's market through data and figures.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change | 7d Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.98% | - | - |
| US 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.61% | - | - |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 121.3202 | - | - |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $755.72 | -1.77% | - |
| NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) | $690.49 | -3.47% | - |
| VIX Fear Index | 18.41 | - | - |
| BTC | $77469.0 | +0.32% | -3.62% |
| ETH | $2254.04 | +0.53% | -3.64% |
| XRP | $1.25 | -0.33% | -3.18% |
| SOL | $95.42 | -0.85% | -5.84% |
| DOGE | $0.075605 | -0.38% | -1.89% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 34 (Fear) | Previous Day 30 (Fear) | - |
| BTC Funding Rate | 0.000100 | +0.01% | - |
| ETH Funding Rate | -0.000031 | -0.00% | - |
The market is still under the shadow of hawkish monetary policy. The US 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.98% and the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.61%, maintaining high levels, while the long-short interest rate spread is 0.37%, showing a normal shape. This indicates that the Federal Reserve's tightening stance continues to act as a valid signal to the market.
Given that the effective federal funds rate is 3.88%, the market is still not ruling out the possibility of further interest rate hikes, and these high interest rate levels continue to burden the liquidity environment. The longer interest rates remain high, the more corporate borrowing costs increase, which can lead to economic growth slowdown and reduced corporate profits.
The Dollar Index recorded 121.3202, continuing its strength. This shows a strong tendency for global capital to return to the safe-haven dollar, while also acting as a pressure factor on emerging markets and risk-asset markets. A strong dollar can lead to reduced overseas profits for US companies and increased debt burden for emerging countries, making it one of the main factors dampening overall risk appetite.
Today, the US stock market recorded a decline, fully absorbing the pressure from the macroeconomy. The S&P 500 (SPY) fell -1.77% to $755.72, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) saw a relatively large drop of -3.47%, closing at $690.49. This clearly shows that the investment appeal of growth stocks is decreasing in a high-interest rate environment.
The VIX Fear Index recorded 18.41, suggesting that market uncertainty and volatility are expanding. Generally, when the VIX index exceeds 20, market fear is considered to be maximized, but the current figure of 18.41 reflects that investors are still vigilant about future economic conditions. This is an important indicator showing that risk aversion is spreading across the entire stock market.
With a total market cap of $2625.9B and 24-hour trading volume of $73.3B, the crypto market generally showed a quiet trend, but subtle differences in sentiment were detected within it. Bitcoin (BTC) slightly increased by +0.32% to $77469.0, maintaining a flat trend compared to the previous day. However, looking at the trend over the past 7 days, it fell -3.62%, indicating that the upward momentum has somewhat weakened.
Ethereum (ETH) also rose +0.53% to $2254.04, showing a similar trend to Bitcoin, but fell -3.64% over 7 days. BTC dominance recorded 59.24864631397082%, still maintaining a high level, indicating that market attention is still concentrated on Bitcoin. This means that Bitcoin is leading the overall market direction.
However, Solana (SOL) fell -0.85%, Ripple (XRP) fell -0.33%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) fell -0.38%, with major altcoins struggling. Solana, in particular, recorded the largest drop of -5.84% over 7 days, suggesting that market risk aversion is also affecting major altcoins.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recorded 34, still remaining in the 'Fear' stage. Although it rose slightly from 30 the previous day, this indicates that overall market investor sentiment remains subdued. The uncertainty of the macroeconomy and the decline in the stock market are believed to be negatively affecting crypto market investor sentiment.
However, even amidst this fear, subtle signals are captured when looking at funding rate data. Bitcoin's funding rate remains positive at +0.01%, showing that demand for long positions has not completely disappeared. In contrast, Ethereum's funding rate recorded -0.00% (specifically -0.000031, which is close to zero but negative), indicating a neutral or slight short position dominance. This reflects the market's cautious attitude towards short-term price fluctuations.
It is somewhat unusual that BTC Open Interest (OI) data is aggregated at $0.0B. This could be a temporary data collection error or mean that there is almost no open interest in a specific market. In normal market conditions, Bitcoin open interest forms a significant volume, so it is difficult to judge the market direction based on this data alone.
An interesting point is that some altcoins surged by over 20% in the Binance USDT-M futures market. AINUSDT rose +29.48%, EVAAUSDT rose +25.13%, ESPORTSUSDT rose +24.57%, and AIOTUSDT rose +21.10%, drawing market attention.
Most of these surges recorded positive funding rates (+0.01% to +0.05%), suggesting that strong demand for long positions in these coins has temporarily flowed in. In particular, these coins had already seen significant increases on October 30 and 31, indicating that speculative capital is concentrating on specific themes or small altcoins.
However, LSKUSDT (+19.38%) and STXUSDT (+12.85%) recorded negative funding rates of -0.12% and -0.10% respectively. This suggests the possibility of a short squeeze occurring due to a rapid price increase despite short positions dominating. This paradox in funding rates can also indicate market inefficiency or the possibility of intervention by specific forces.
This phenomenon shows that in an overall declining market, investors are seeking short-term profits in altcoins that are relatively undervalued or have high expectations for specific themes (AI, GameFi, etc.). However, such movements are typical phenomena observed in limited liquidity markets and are accompanied by high volatility, so investors need to exercise extreme caution.
Amidst macroeconomic headwinds and weakness in the stock market, the crypto market is showing a subtle division with Bitcoin flat, major altcoins down, and small altcoins experiencing speculative surges, indicating a time to watch for the movement of short-term theme-based capital.
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새벽998
·이러다 떨어지면 어쩌지, 조심해야겠어요.
emma_h
·혼란스럽네.
Orb_Blaze
·음, 그렇군.
snow.fox
·뭐, 늘 하던 분석인데 뭐가 달라지겠어