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This is Seo Jin-hyuk, a macro strategist from Wall Street. On October 6, 2026, today's market is reacting sensitively to unexpected cooling signals from US employment indicators, once again proving the correlation between macroeconomic indicators and the crypto market. As bets on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) rapidly cool, risk asset preference is strengthening. Bitcoin is taking a breather around the $86,000 mark, but anticipation for a break above $90,000 is hotter than ever. I will provide a clear analysis of where the market is headed, using data and figures.
The market is currently front-running the possibility of a dovish shift by the Fed due to the slowdown in the US job market, showing strength in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Along with a steady inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs, major altcoins are also showing significant gains. In particular, AI-themed coins are recording explosive trading volumes, especially in the Korean market, becoming a new driving force for the market.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $85825.0 | -0.80% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2712.07 | -0.53% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.51 | -0.83% |
| Solana (SOL) | $120.7 | -0.71% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.095447 | -0.47% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 73 (Greed) | Previous Day 70 (Greed) |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $774.83 | +0.67% |
| NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) | $756.2 | +0.88% |
| VIX Fear Index | 16.54 | |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | N/A% | |
| Effective Federal Funds Rate | 3.88% | |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 121.3848 | |
| BTC Funding Rate | -0.000025 | -0.00% |
| ETH Funding Rate | 0.000030 | +0.00% |
Recent sharp cooling signals in the US job market have rapidly cooled bets on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The probability of an October rate hike has plummeted to 17%-18%, and the market is now focusing on the possibility of the Fed easing its hawkish stance. This is positively impacting risk assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies and can be interpreted as a front-running move for easing financial conditions.
However, it is noteworthy that the Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to 102.53, reaching its highest level since April 2025. While a strong dollar can generally be a burden on risk assets, the weakening of interest rate hike bets due to slowing employment indicators appears to be exerting a greater influence currently. Furthermore, escalating Iran-Israel tensions and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war remain factors that can increase market uncertainty.
The US stock market continued its robust performance, with the S&P 500 closing up +0.67% and the Nasdaq up +1.05%. In particular, Nvidia (NVDA), the leading AI chip stock, hit an all-time high for two consecutive days fueled by explosive demand for next-generation chips, nearing a market capitalization of $6 trillion. This reflects strong investor sentiment across tech stocks.
Global market maker Citadel Securities assessed September as a 'recalibration' period for the US stock market and Q4 as a 'reloading' period, presenting a positive outlook for the year-end market. However, CNBC's Jim Cramer warned about the Q3 earnings season, stating that 'the sweet earnings party is over,' indicating that increased volatility due to corporate earnings reports cannot be ruled out.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading in the upper $85,000 range, attempting to break above $87,000 and $90,000. The recent employment shock, leading to a rapid cooling of interest rate hike bets, spurred a sharp rebound in Bitcoin, and with the probability of an October rate hike falling to 18%, expectations for a $90,000 breakthrough are growing.
Institutional investors' buying of Bitcoin spot ETFs has recorded net inflows for three consecutive weeks, totaling $241 million. Notably, Strategy acquired an additional 334 BTC, holding a total of 848,000 BTC, and Strive also purchased an additional 2,000 BTC, demonstrating continuous institutional accumulation of Bitcoin. News that Morgan Stanley is also scooping up Bitcoin spot ETFs suggests that institutional adoption of Bitcoin is accelerating.
On-chain data analysis shows that Bitcoin whales' exchange fund flows have shifted from net inflows to net outflows, ending a net inflow period that lasted over three months. This could mean that whales are reducing selling pressure. However, whale accounts holding assets over $3 million show a dominance of short positions for both BTC and ETH in their futures positions, so the possibility of increased short-term volatility should also be considered.
From a long-term perspective, TD Cowen predicts Bitcoin will reach $132,000 by 2027, Cathie Wood forecasts $1.5 million by 2030, and the president of Coinbase Asset Management predicts over $300,000, all emphasizing Bitcoin's immense growth potential.
Ethereum (ETH) recorded its largest-ever staking volume with 40.2 million ETH staked, but it entered a period of increased volatility after failing to break the $2,800 resistance three times. The current queue for Ethereum staking is approximately 1.5 million ETH, expected to take 25 days to enter. Citigroup is betting on Ethereum reaching $3,000, viewing the recent correction as a temporary phenomenon. In Q3, ETH surged +70%, outperforming BTC (+42%), but its liquidity share sharply decreased compared to BTC.
Solana (SOL) has ranked first in DEX trading volume for five consecutive weeks, surpassing Ethereum and demonstrating strong network activity. It showed strength with a 100% rebound from its yearly low, but with institutional fund inflows virtually halting, it appears to be taking a breather before attempting to break $125. DeFi Development's additional purchase of 26,000 SOL indicates continued institutional interest.
Despite its spot ETF recording net inflows for 12 consecutive weeks and whales accumulating 1.6 billion XRP, Ripple (XRP) is stalled at the $1.55 resistance level. However, a veteran analyst predicted a bullish pattern if it breaks $1.65, suggesting a significant move is imminent. The CFTC Chairman's mention of XLM, XTZ, and XRP as examples of 'digital commodities' alongside BTC, ETH, and SOL can be seen as a positive signal for future regulatory clarity.
Dogecoin (DOGE), a leading meme coin, has recorded net institutional fund inflows for three consecutive weeks and is aiming to break the $0.1 resistance. The Dogecoin Foundation director highlighted new projects pouring into the ecosystem alongside infrastructure expansion, demonstrating ecosystem growth beyond just a meme coin.
In the Korean market, in particular, AI-related cryptocurrency trading has been prominent, reigniting the AI coin theme. Worldcoin (WLD) was identified as the largest thematic investment area by KRW-denominated trading volume, and strong buying interest in AI themes was confirmed, with FET surging 12% and VIRTUAL, NEAR showing concurrent strength.
The growth of the stablecoin and RWA (Real World Asset) markets is accelerating the integration of the cryptocurrency market into mainstream finance. Collaborations like MoonPay and KB Kookmin Card for virtual asset payments, the emergence of Open USD by Visa and Mastercard, and Stripe's plan to expand its stablecoin card program to over 100 countries are increasing the real-world applicability of digital assets. Stellar (XLM) blockchain capturing 37% of funds flowing into the RWA tokenization market, ranking first, demonstrates the potential of the RWA market.
The Fear & Greed Index, which reflects cryptocurrency market sentiment, recorded 73, entering the 'Greed' phase. This is an increase from 70 on the previous day, reflecting a generally positive market atmosphere. However, caution against overheating is also necessary.
According to a CoinShares report, 70% of high-net-worth individuals in the US, UK, and Germany hold cryptocurrencies, with 79% of respondents supporting stronger regulation in the digital asset market, and 77% expecting Bitcoin to play a significant role in the future global financial system. This indicates that cryptocurrencies are no longer speculative assets but are establishing themselves as a crucial pillar of the mainstream financial system.
The easing of interest rate hike expectations due to the US employment shock has injected strong buying pressure into Bitcoin and risk assets across the board, ushering in a period of 'greed' where Bitcoin's breakthrough of $90,000 and the strength of AI-themed coins serve as key market drivers.
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fluffydolphin
·와, 이거 완전 떡상각 아니냐? 레전드다!
sun.wave
·흠, 또 9만 달러 간다고? 믿기 힘든데.
겨울잠532
·이러다 확 떨어지는 거 아니야? 😥
차가운grove
·와 진짜 좋다
반짝반짝71
·데이터 기반 분석, 구조가 탄탄하네.