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Amidst a stable U.S. stock market and robust Bitcoin flow, the market is sending complex signals. As of October 4, 2026, Bitcoin is firmly holding the $84,000 mark, continuing its strong bullish trend daily. However, major altcoins are showing mixed movements, declining alongside Bitcoin's correction pressure.
Where is the market looking now? Today, the market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic variables such as the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties, all under the shadow of slow liquidity recovery and regulatory risks. Let's clearly analyze the current market direction through data and figures.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $84740.0 | +0.27% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2686.87 | +0.70% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.49 | +0.09% |
| Solana (SOL) | $119.61 | +0.88% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.092788 | -0.15% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 65 (Greed) | Previous day 67 (Greed) |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | $749.58 | +1.02% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $769.64 | +0.74% |
| VIX Volatility Index | 16.72 | |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 5.24% | |
| BTC Funding Rate | -0.00% | |
| ETH Funding Rate | +0.00% |
Currently, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.24% and the 2-year Treasury yield is at 4.78%, maintaining high interest rate levels. The long-short interest rate spread is positive at 0.46%, suggesting that the market anticipates long-term growth rather than a short-term recession. However, persistently high interest rates could still burden risk assets.
The Dollar Index continues its very strong trend at 120.33. A strong dollar typically acts as a factor that dampens investment sentiment for emerging market assets and risk assets. Furthermore, the recent surge in international oil prices above $100 per barrel is rekindling inflation concerns, which is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its hawkish monetary policy stance.
Notably, October will see a concentration of key economic data releases and Fed monetary policy decisions, including the release of the September FOMC minutes, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) announcements, and the FOMC interest rate decision and Fed Chair's press conference. These events will be critical variables that could significantly amplify volatility in the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin. As foreign reports indicate, "U.S. Fed monetary policy to increase market volatility," the market is keenly watching the Fed's next steps.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $84,740.0, showing a robust trend. It has risen by +0.27% over 24 hours and +0.76% over 7 days, maintaining the mid-$80,000 range. This indicates that while it faced resistance near $87,000, as suggested by the recent headline "Why is Bitcoin threatening $84,000 after seemingly breaking $87,000?", it has successfully defended the $84,000 level.
A renowned cryptocurrency trader predicted that a correction to $82,500 for Bitcoin could be a buying opportunity. This reflects an expectation of downside rigidity while acknowledging the possibility of a short-term correction. From a long-term perspective, even more optimistic analyses emerge. According to Bitcoin's long-term valuation model, the 'Rainbow Chart,' the current Bitcoin price is analyzed as "severely undervalued" compared to the lowest historical trendline model of $115,355.
Furthermore, the Vice President of Investments at Strive, a Bitcoin accumulation firm, stated that if the BTC/gold ratio recovers to its 2024 high of 40.1 ounces, Bitcoin could rise to approximately $190,858, emphasizing Bitcoin's long-term upward potential. Bitcoin's realized market capitalization increased by $12.8 billion (1.2%) over the past month, reaching $1.079 trillion as of two days ago. This indicates a steady increase in the on-chain purchase cost of market participants, suggesting strong intrinsic value growth despite price corrections.
Ethereum (ETH) rose by +0.70% over 24 hours, but its 7-day volatility was +0.04%, showing almost flat movement. As suggested by the news headline, "2,700 dollar resistance wall and trading volume plummeted!…Ethereum, declines alongside Bitcoin's correction," it failed to break the $2,700 resistance level and fell with Bitcoin's correction. Notably, an anonymous whale deposited 6,595.2 ETH (approximately $17.57 million) into Coinbase, raising the possibility of a stop-loss and indicating short-term selling pressure on Ethereum.
Major altcoins such as Ripple (XRP) fell by -2.45% over 7 days, Solana (SOL) by -1.29%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) by -3.69%, showing relative weakness compared to Bitcoin. This is interpreted as reflecting a general risk-off sentiment in the market and a concentration of funds towards Bitcoin.
Notably, privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) recorded a massive net outflow of $93.56 million from the Grayscale ETF within a week. This is a result of regulatory concerns that Zcash was exploited for money laundering by North Korean hackers, combined with large-scale fund outflows from institutional investment products. The headline, "Zcash (ZEC) Used for North Korean Hacker Money Laundering…'Institutional Exodus' Amid Regulatory Crackdown Fear," clearly demonstrates the ripple effect of regulatory risks on specific altcoins.
On the other hand, in the Binance futures market, some smaller altcoins surged with high volatility, such as AINUSDT rising by +78.83% and 龙虾USDT by +27.27% over 24 hours. This indicates that even amidst a general lack of market liquidity, speculative funds are flowing into specific themes or low-market-cap coins, driving short-term pumps.
The regulatory environment is also a critical variable. The Korea Institute of Finance suggested that DeFi and OTC support providers should be classified as unlicensed virtual asset service providers, and measures to restrict domestic users' access and transactions are necessary. Furthermore, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) new custody regulations raise concerns about increasing cost burdens for small investment advisory firms, requiring close attention to the impact of the overall trend of regulatory tightening on the altcoin market.
The current Fear & Greed Index, which reflects market sentiment, stands at 65 (Greed), maintaining an optimistic level. Although it slightly decreased from 67 (Greed) the previous day, greed sentiment still dominates the overall market. This appears to be due to Bitcoin's bullish trend and the surge of some altcoins.
However, according to an analysis by a CryptoQuant contributor, stablecoin market capitalization has decreased by $14 billion since May and, despite increasing by approximately $4 billion since September, the recovery is slow. This signals that liquidity flowing into the cryptocurrency market remains insufficient. The analysis that additional liquidity inflow is necessary for Bitcoin to reach new highs demonstrates the market's fundamental thirst for liquidity.
While Bitcoin's realized market capitalization increased by $12.8 billion over the past month, which is positive, the overall market liquidity recovery is still modest. This suggests that the market is more likely to see a limited bull run centered around Bitcoin rather than an overall upward trend. Furthermore, the long/short ratio in the futures market shows a dominance of short positions at 49.26% long / 50.74% short across all exchanges, indicating a cautious sentiment regarding short-term corrections.
Amidst robust Bitcoin and U.S. stock markets, macroeconomic uncertainties, altcoin correction pressures, and slow liquidity recovery create a complex market environment that demands a cautious approach.
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cole이슬비
·이게 뭔소리야, 코인 어려워
sparklypanda
·이제 시작이다, 존버는 승리한다
스시러버58
·흠, 진짜 2026년인가?