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Hello, this is Jin-hyuk Seo, a macro strategist from Wall Street. As of October 3, 2026, the market is seeking a crucial turning point amidst complex macroeconomic indicators and conflicting signals from the cryptocurrency market. While the US stock market showed a solid upward trend, Bitcoin continued to stagnate around the $84,000 mark, exploring its short-term direction.
Where is the market looking now? Today, the market is seeing a positive atmosphere for risk assets as the slowdown in US employment data and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data lowers expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike. However, high Treasury yields and a strong dollar continue to be factors holding the market back, with a strong wait-and-see attitude prevailing, especially as the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin spot demand remains unresolved.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $84504.0 | -0.42% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2668.28 | -1.39% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.48 | -0.64% |
| Solana (SOL) | $118.59 | +0.14% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.092942 | -1.51% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 67 (Greed) | Previous Day: 72 (Greed) |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | $749.58 | +1.02% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $769.64 | +0.74% |
| VIX Fear Index | 16.72 | - |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 5.24% | - |
| BTC Funding Rate | 0.000012 | +0.00% |
| ETH Funding Rate | 0.000015 | +0.00% |
The US 10-year Treasury yield remains high at 5.24%, but the recently announced September non-farm payrolls report showed a significant slowdown in the labor market, with only 29,000 new jobs added, far below market expectations of 89,000. Furthermore, news of slowing PCE inflation data has reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in October to 38%, leading the market to anticipate a moderation in the Fed's tightening stance.
These expectations led to a rise in US stock markets. The S&P 500 rose +0.74%, and the Nasdaq 100 climbed +1.02%, indicating some recovery in risk-on sentiment. However, with the Dollar Index remaining at a high level of 120.33, strong dollar pressure persists in terms of global liquidity, which could burden the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin is currently at $84,504.0, down -0.42% over 24 hours, but has maintained a robust trend with a +0.89% rise on a weekly basis. This indicates that Bitcoin attempted to reclaim the $86,000 level amidst a general rebound in the crypto asset market following the September employment shock.
According to on-chain data, Bitcoin spot demand is recovering, but buying pressure from the US is not yet clear. Analysis suggests that the $88,000-$89,000 range will be a test for long-term holders, potentially limiting short-term upward price pressure. The funding rate in the futures market is close to zero, indicating no excessive long position bias. However, the forced liquidation of $550 million in futures positions over the past 24 hours, with short liquidations accounting for 91.13%, suggests increasing market volatility.
Ethereum fell -1.39%, showing weakness against Bitcoin, while major altcoins such as Ripple (-0.64%), Solana (+0.14%), and Dogecoin (-1.51%) also showed mixed trends. However, various news reports confirm that a massive trend of 'tokenization' is accelerating in the altcoin market.
Uniswap (UNI) ranked first with a 60% share of stock token trading volume within decentralized exchanges (DEX) in September, with stock token DEX trading volume surging by 10,163.7% year-on-year to $48.7 billion. The number of Solana-based tokenized stock holders also surpassed 1.2 million, reaching an all-time high, indicating strong market interest in Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization. Traditional financial institutions are also actively participating, with Fidelity exploring expanded access to Ethereum-based tokenized money market funds, and Kyobo Life Insurance discussing stablecoin and RWA business cooperation with SBI Holdings and Circle.
For individual assets, the news of Canary Capital's amended PEPE spot ETF filing suggests a revitalization of the memecoin market and could be interpreted as another sign of the crypto bear market ending. Furthermore, Upbit, Bithumb, and Coinone delisting SAND as a warning-designated asset led to SAND recording an explosive gain of +52.43% over 24 hours. Conversely, the Ethereum L2 network Blast decided to terminate its service due to deteriorating profitability, highlighting intensified competition and sustainability issues in the L2 market.
The cryptocurrency market's Fear & Greed Index stands at 67 (Greed), still within the greed zone, but has slightly decreased from 72 (Greed) the previous day. This is interpreted as the recent failure of Bitcoin to break past $86,000 and the correction in some altcoins affecting investor sentiment.
The influx of stablecoin whales, with over $1 million flowing into Binance, has increased by more than 40% in about a month, which can be interpreted as capital waiting to enter the market. However, analysis also suggests that whales are cautiously deploying liquidity due to macroeconomic uncertainties such as geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and rising bond yields, indicating a lack of conviction regarding the overall market direction.
While interest rate hike pressure is easing due to slowing macroeconomic indicators, Bitcoin is consolidating around the $84,000 mark, and the market shows a mixed trend with individual altcoins leading the way amidst the tokenization trend.
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