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Unlike the stable flow of the U.S. stock market, the cryptocurrency market showed mixed trends on the first day of October, with only a slight rebound. The announcement of the U.S. August Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which fell below expectations, provided short-term relief to the market. However, the persistently high burden of treasury yields and profit-taking pressure seem to be limiting upward momentum. The market is currently searching for the next catalyst to attract liquidity.
In particular, Bitcoin failed to break through $85,000 and is consolidating around the $83,000 level, while the altcoin market has seen a general wait-and-see attitude amidst sharp fluctuations in some assets. Investors are seeking clear direction at the intersection of interest rates, liquidity, and risk appetite.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $83541.0 | -0.11% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2683.68 | +0.26% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.49 | -0.08% |
| Solana (SOL) | $118.01 | -0.89% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.094463 | +0.67% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 74 (Greed) | Prev. Day 71 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $762.63 | -0.21% |
| NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) | $739.77 | +0.25% |
| VIX Volatility Index | 16.94 | - |
| US 10-year Treasury Yield | 5.26% | - |
| BTC Funding Rate | 0.000080 | +0.01% |
| ETH Funding Rate | 0.000057 | +0.01% |
The U.S. August Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% month-over-month, falling below market expectations (0.3%). This indicator, which the Federal Reserve (Fed) considers important for assessing inflation, is interpreted as a sign of slowing inflation and could fuel expectations for interest rate cuts. Indeed, senior Fed officials have stated that there is no need to rush additional rate hikes in October, providing relief to the market.
However, despite these positive signals, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains high at 5.26%, burdening the market. In particular, the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002, increasing the burden of long-term interest rates. This ultimately dampens risk asset appetite and limits liquidity expansion.
The dollar index also recorded a strong performance at 120.33, which could act as pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. A strong dollar typically increases the burden of dollar debt repayment, making investors more likely to reduce their exposure to risk assets. The market is currently trying to find a balance between the positive news of slowing inflation and the negative factor of prolonged high interest rates.
Bitcoin (BTC) broke its September seasonality, often called the 'bearish month,' rising over 7% and showing strong resilience. Immediately after the lower-than-expected PCE price index announcement, it even briefly surpassed $85,000, but then gave back some gains and consolidated around the $83,000 level.
Inflows into spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) continued for nine consecutive trading days, indicating a steady influx of institutional buying. BlackRock's crypto asset holdings increased by approximately $29.54 billion in the third quarter alone, and its Bitcoin holdings surpassed 800,000 BTC. This is important data demonstrating sustained institutional interest in Bitcoin.
However, Bitcoin is facing a strong sell wall around $85,000, struggling to break through. On-chain data analysis indicates that the unrealized profit ratio for short-term investors soared to 33%, suggesting increased profit-taking pressure. Furthermore, Bitcoin futures open interest surpassed $50 billion for the first time this year, showing market vitality but also implying potential for increased volatility.
Experts forecast Bitcoin's fair value to range from $197,000 to a maximum of $600,000, emphasizing its long-term upside potential. However, some analyses suggest that in the short term, the proportion of BTC in profit status needs to exceed 76% to signal a sustained recovery. Currently at 72%, additional upward momentum seems necessary.
Ethereum (ETH) saw a slight increase similar to Bitcoin, consolidating around the $2,600 level. The countdown to the Glamsterdam mainnet launch and the projected increase in demand for virtual assets and blockchain infrastructure due to the spread of AI agents could act as long-term growth drivers for Ethereum. Some analysts predict Ethereum will leap to become the 'world computer,' reaching $10,000 by year-end and $12,000 in the long term.
Ripple (XRP) attracted over $300 million in U.S. spot ETFs in Q3, surging 45% in three months. However, with news of the imminent release of 1 billion XRP from escrow, it is facing strong resistance around $1.50, losing its upward momentum. AI-based price prediction models suggest a potential rise to $1.66-$1.68 by the end of October, but the dominant analysis is that a recovery to $3 by year-end depends on Bitcoin and interest rate trends.
Solana (SOL) showed the most positive trend among major altcoins, rising +3.03% over the past 7 days. Daily inflows into Solana spot ETFs were over 300% higher than XRP spot ETF trading volumes, indicating strong institutional interest. Institutional capital inflow is being confirmed, with Canadian listed company Digital Commodities selling gold to purchase Solana.
Dogecoin (DOGE) rose +0.67%, but there are warnings that its recent rebound to $0.10 may not last, potentially falling to $0.05. Despite ETF inflows, price volatility remains high. Meanwhile, some altcoins like MOVR, US, AGT, and NIGHT recorded high gains of over 20% in a single day, showing strong speculative buying, but this could be a short-term phenomenon due to excessive risk appetite.
Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and the proliferation of AI agents are emerging as new growth engines for the cryptocurrency market. Chainlink launched 'Fulcrum,' a cross-chain collateral and financial platform connecting banks and asset managers to the on-chain market, contributing to RWA market expansion. BlackRock also anticipates that the spread of AI agents will drive demand for virtual assets and blockchain infrastructure, with Ethereum and Solana expected to benefit.
The stablecoin market recorded net outflows for 18 consecutive months, with approximately 14 trillion Korean Won (around $10 billion USD) flowing out. However, global financial institutions are increasingly active in adopting stablecoins, as evidenced by HSBC's launch of 'HSBC Redcoin,' SBI Holdings' push to build a stablecoin payment infrastructure in Japan, and Shinhan Bank's technical verification of corporate overseas remittances using stablecoins. These are important changes that will lead to the institutionalization and growth of the stablecoin market in the long term.
The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 74, indicating a 'Greed' phase. While this reflects a generally optimistic sentiment among market participants, given that Bitcoin has repeatedly been blocked at key resistance levels and altcoin market volatility has increased, it is a time to be wary of excessive optimism.
Despite the positive news of slowing U.S. inflation, factors such as the burden of high treasury yields, profit-taking pressure on some coins, and hacking incidents (Bitget hacking damage of $1.25 billion) are increasing overall market caution. In particular, the number of altcoin exchange deposits reached its highest level since October last year, raising concerns about potential selling pressure.
While inflation slowdown is positive, concerns about prolonged high interest rates persist. The cryptocurrency market is in a 'gem-picking' phase, seeking the next upward momentum with institutional inflows and expectations for AI/RWA themes.