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Hello, this is OOO, a blockchain tech influencer! September 17, 2026, a flood of news has poured out from yesterday to today, hasn't it? From the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike to the setback of cryptocurrency regulatory bills, the market has shown a chaotic appearance. However, amidst this chaos, there are important trends we must not miss. Today, I will break down the complex market situation in an easy and interesting way, and coolly analyze the future of the blockchain market!
The news that the 'Clarity Act', a cryptocurrency market structure bill, failed to pass the Senate in the US Congress brought disappointment to many investors. Immediately after the bill's setback, XRP once plummeted by about 12%, and major altcoins such as Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Stellar Lumens (XLM) also saw significant declines. This was like pouring cold water on a market that had expected regulatory clarity. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also expressed concern due to the bill's rejection, stating that "other countries will lead the future of finance."
However, Michael Saylor, Chairman of MicroStrategy, predicted that even if the Clarity Act fails, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and the Treasury Department will establish cryptocurrency regulations under existing law, and banks will expand Bitcoin custody and lending. Bernstein also believes that the regulatory initiative will shift from congressional legislation to rule-making by the SEC and CFTC, indicating positive signs that a regulatory vacuum will not be prolonged.
Meanwhile, there is also hopeful news. The US House Ways and Means Committee passed the 'Digital Asset Tax Clarity Act', which overhauls the cryptocurrency taxation system. This bill includes provisions that can reduce the tax burden on general investors, such as applying a $10 tax-exempt threshold for small transactions. Additionally, the House Financial Services Committee began deliberating the 'American Strategic Reserve Modernization Act', which mandates the Treasury Department to hold government-seized Bitcoin as a 'strategic reserve asset' for at least 20 years. Although the vote was postponed, the government's move to recognize Bitcoin as a strategic asset can be seen as a very positive long-term signal.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) restarted its tightening policy by raising the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points for the first time in 3 years and 2 months. The Fed raised its US growth forecast for this year and increased the median year-end interest rate forecast to 4.1%, signaling the possibility of further hikes. This demonstrates a strong commitment to controlling inflation. However, former President Trump criticized the Fed's rate hike, arguing that US interest rates should be lowered to below 1%, indicating significant political pressure.
While this Fed decision led to a decline in the New York stock market, the cryptocurrency market, contrary to expectations, saw Bitcoin (BTC) surge to $76,000 immediately after the interest rate hike. This suggests that the prospect of interest rate hikes had already been largely priced into the market, and other factors had a greater impact on the market than the Fed's policy decision.
Recently, Bitcoin has shown a 'decoupling' phenomenon, where its correlation with the dollar index and the US stock market has weakened. This means that Bitcoin is reacting more sensitively to its own regulatory issues or internal supply and demand factors rather than traditional macroeconomic factors. Movements by cryptocurrency investors to increase their stablecoin holdings and secure liquidity ahead of the Fed's announcement have also been observed, which is evidence that the market is more interested in where idle funds will move after the rate hike itself. If the Fed makes less hawkish statements than expected, it could even be positive news for stores of value like Bitcoin and gold.
Following the news of the Clarity Act's rejection and the Fed's interest rate hike, Bitcoin showed a temporary pause, failing to surpass the $78,000 mark, accompanied by a panic sell-off of 23,200 BTC. Bitcoin spot ETFs also saw net outflows of 615.8 billion KRW, appearing to dampen investor sentiment. However, amidst this downturn, large whales actively accumulated over 240 million Dogecoin (DOGE), and Marathon Digital (MARA) additionally purchased BTC worth $98.64 million, demonstrating active long-term accumulation movements. Furthermore, hidden movements were detected last month, such as 3,790 BTC that had been dormant for a long time being moved.
Analysts' forecasts for Bitcoin's price are divided. Matthew Hyland predicted a breakout above $90,000 by early November, citing daily cycle lows and bullish divergences, while Ted Fellows raised the possibility of further declines to $70,000-$72,000. Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek, sees Bitcoin's fair value at $105,000 according to Metcalfe's Law, emphasizing that the current price is a good time to buy.
On-chain data analysis shows that Bitcoin's on-chain activity has fallen to an all-time low, but this can be interpreted as a positive sign of decreasing selling pressure. Furthermore, the proportion of BTC supply that has remained unmoved for 6-12 months has significantly increased relative to the average cost basis of all holders, which is a pattern similar to what was seen at the beginning of past bull markets. Although the current level of $75,000 is higher than the 2022 bottom, the accumulation by long-term holders is an important indicator of market robustness.
The Real World Asset (RWA) market has grown 17.4 times in three years, surpassing $46.7 billion, with Ethereum (ETH) leading and Solana (SOL) in hot pursuit. The founder of Aave emphasized that after the Clarity Act's setback, DeFi should build services first and grow its influence through an 'Uber strategy'. Circle launched 'Arc', a USDC-optimized Layer 1 blockchain mainnet, offering EVM compatibility and sub-second transaction finality, with over 100 applications already joined. Sui (SUI) is contributing to the advancement of privacy technology by implementing 'anonymous transfers' through the simplification of repetitive proof-of-work. The news that Solana-based DEXs' spot trading volume has exceeded the combined trading volume of Coinbase and Kraken is also notable.
Cardano (ADA) is exploring entry into the payment market in partnership with Mastercard, and the commencement of Midnight token unlocking is raising expectations for ecosystem expansion. Standard Chartered has made a bold forecast that Arbitrum (ARB) will grow 70-fold by 2030, reaching a target price of $10. Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of 193.4 billion KRW, but monthly inflows amounted to 30 times the new issuance, still showing strong institutional demand. XRP suffered a significant decline due to the Clarity Act's setback, but Ripple is continuing its marketing activities, such as featuring the XRP logo on US college basketball courts.
In Q2 2026, venture capital (VC) investment in cryptocurrency and blockchain companies increased by 31% quarter-over-quarter, reaching $5.683 billion. Investment was particularly concentrated in late-stage companies and US-headquartered firms, with exchange, trading, investment, and lending-related companies securing the most funding. Traditional financial institutions are also accelerating their entry into the blockchain market, with Deutsche Bank launching cryptocurrency custody services for institutions and BitGo establishing a Brazilian subsidiary to expand its business for local institutions. Ondo Finance (ONDO) became the first tokenization company to join the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC)'s fund transaction processing network in the US, taking a significant step towards institutional integration.
Regulatory pressure on prediction markets is intensifying, with Polymarket users being referred to prosecutors and Underdog filing a lawsuit against Connecticut state authorities. The incident of Revolut customer information being leaked due to an Italian government email hack and the detection of abnormal asset transfers from Dcent wallets in Korea once again remind us of the importance of security in the blockchain industry. These incidents highlight the challenges that must be addressed as the market matures.
Everyone, through the news we've reviewed today, we can see that the market is steadily building long-term growth momentum even amidst short-term confusion and uncertainty. The regulatory environment remains highly volatile, but efforts for institutional integration and technological advancements are not stopping. In particular, the growth of RWA, DeFi, and new Layer 1 blockchains presents a bright vision for the future of the blockchain industry. While we must coolly analyze the market based on figures and facts, we should not lose a positive outlook on the future that blockchain technology will create. See you in the next column!