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Hello, everyone! Your energetic guide, a 30-something blockchain tech analyst, is back. The last 24 hours have been quite eventful, haven't they? Especially the news from the US Congress, which significantly shook the market. Amidst this complex situation, I'll break down the key points we should focus on in an easy and fun way. Groundless optimism is absolutely forbidden! We'll take a cold, hard look based on numbers and facts.
The biggest issue was the news of the US Senate's rejection of the CLARITY Act. As this bill failed to pass the Senate, the entire major cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, fluctuated. Meme coins like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and TrumpCoin all plummeted, and altcoins such as XRP, Stellar, Solana, and Ethereum also saw significant declines.
Why was it rejected? Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin pointed out that the ethics clause regarding conflicts of interest for public officials in cryptocurrency was insufficient. Senator Elizabeth Warren also strongly opposed it, stating that the bill's passage could lead to the collapse of the US economy. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse expressed regret over the outcome but emphasized that the future of US cryptocurrency remains optimistic. This is a positive sign because industry leaders are not stopping their efforts to establish regulations.
However, not everything is negative. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed support, emphasizing that the CLARITY Act grants the Treasury Department the authority to crack down on evasion and is crucial for maintaining the US as the crypto capital. Additionally, the US House Ways and Means Committee is pushing for tax exemption for crypto transactions under $10 and exclusion of mining and staking rewards from taxation standards. This is a good sign because it can be seen as a move to reduce the burden on small transactions and not hinder industry growth.
Even amidst the bad news of the CLARITY Act's rejection, Bitcoin held strong. It once surpassed $77,000 but then fell back below $75,000, leading to analyses predicting a movement within the $75,000-$82,000 range. However, the analysis that the market is shifting from a bearish to a neutral phase, with long-term holders' SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) exceeding 1, remains valid. This is a good sign because it means Bitcoin has moved past the bottom and is entering the preparatory stage for a full-fledged rally.
Institutional investment flows are also noteworthy. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded their first weekly net outflow since June last week but turned back to a net inflow of 217 billion KRW in the last 5 trading days. BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC led the capital inflows. Strive CEO Matt Cole also predicted that Bitcoin would yield an average annual return of approximately 50% until 2030. These positive outlooks demonstrate confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value.
Ethereum's exchange holdings have plummeted by 73% compared to their 2020 peak. This is a very good sign because a reduction in immediately sellable supply in the market can lead to greater price volatility even with small buying pressure. Furthermore, Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net inflows for two consecutive days, indicating continued institutional interest. However, a hacking incident recently occurred where $7.73 million worth of ETH was stolen from a Gnosis Safe wallet, so personal wallet security needs to be given more attention.
XRP received intense attention with a 348% surge in options trading volume ahead of the CLARITY Act vote. Exchange liquidity also recovered to its highest level in six months. Positive capital flows were detected, with approximately $12 million per day flowing into US XRP spot ETFs. This is a good sign because it shows that market expectations and liquidity for XRP remain high despite regulatory uncertainty. Ripple is also working to increase public awareness by partnering with the University of Louisville for sports.
Solana fell below $100 due to the impact of the CLARITY Act's rejection, but it has made significant technological progress. An upgrade that expands the data capacity of a single transaction by more than threefold has been applied to the mainnet. This is a very good sign because it will enable the development of more complex and diverse dApps, greatly increasing the network's scalability and utility. In the long term, this could be an important stepping stone to gain an advantage over Ethereum in competition.
Zcash (ZEC) closely trailed Hyperliquid (HYPE) in market capitalization, demonstrating the strength of the privacy coin sector. In contrast, Shiba Inu (SHIB) saw its upward momentum abruptly halted as key indicators collapsed by 78%, and exchange outflows surged, indicating high volatility. Cardano (ADA) had concerning news, such as a DeFi security alert being issued, but its joining of the Mastercard Crypto Partner Program, expanding its connection with traditional finance, is positive.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered (SC) predicted that Arbitrum (ARB) tokens, an Ethereum Layer 2 solution, could rise to $10 by 2030, driven by the growth of the tokenized asset market. This is a good sign because it demonstrates the growth potential of the RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization) market and once again highlights the importance of Layer 2 solutions.
The WTO report stating that stablecoin cross-border payments have grown 35-fold but still account for only 3% of international payments once again highlights the importance of regulatory barriers. However, the growth of stablecoins continues, with Circle's USDC cumulative on-chain transaction volume surpassing $100 trillion and Ripple's RLUSD market capitalization increasing by $1 billion this year alone. This is a good sign because it is evidence that blockchain-based payments are gradually becoming mainstream.
The Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization market is also quietly growing. The RWA market size, excluding stablecoins, reached approximately $39.15 billion, and the number of holding wallets surged by 109% in one month. MOUs for expanding the distribution of tokenized RWA in Asia by Arco and EX.IO, and Kraken's launch of xStocks Vault, demonstrate the potential of the RWA market. This is a good sign because the acceleration of the integration of traditional assets and blockchain is creating new investment opportunities.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, mentioned that blockchain can contribute to preventing collusion and addressing safety issues in AI, which is a significant implication that further expands the scope of blockchain technology's application. Olas's move to launch AI agent-based DeFi services on Robinhood Chain also offers a glimpse into the future of finance. While there are various discussions, such as President Trump's "scam" remark on slowing down AI development or Elon Musk's warning about AI risks, it is clear that blockchain can be a core infrastructure providing trust and transparency in the AI era.
Today's market experienced high volatility due to US regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic indicators. However, amidst this, the solid fundamentals of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the technological advancements of XRP and Solana, and the steady growth of the stablecoin and RWA markets are positive signs we should not miss. Of course, investment decisions should always be made coolly based on numbers and facts. By understanding market trends well and responding wisely, you will surely be able to seize good opportunities even amidst this uncertainty! I'll be back with more insightful analyses next time!
", "originalLanguage": "KO", "title": "The Future of Blockchain is Bright Even Amidst the US Regulatory Storm!to leave a comment.