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I am Jinhyuk Seo, a macro strategist from Wall Street. Today, the market is experiencing increased volatility amidst two massive waves: pressure from macroeconomic indicators and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. cryptocurrency regulation bill. As the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate hike probability approaches 90%, dollar strength pressure is intensifying, but at the same time, the impending vote on the U.S. Congress's 'CLARITY Act' is also raising expectations for institutional clarity in the cryptocurrency market.
Where is the market looking now? According to data and figures, Bitcoin is showing strong support around the $78,000 level, absorbing selling pressure, but the resolution of the macro environment and regulatory uncertainty is essential for a full-fledged upward momentum. Ethereum is showing relative strength with capital inflows into spot ETFs surpassing Bitcoin, and major altcoins are also showing differentiated movements based on individual positive news.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $78156.0 | +1.74% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2514.58 | +1.54% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.42 | +6.00% |
| Solana (SOL) | $102.49 | +3.23% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.083631 | +1.48% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 69 (Greed) | Previous Day: 57 (Greed) |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | $709.18 | -0.80% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $760.88 | -0.45% |
| VIX Fear Index | 17.49 | - |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.96% | - |
| BTC Funding Rate | +0.00% | - |
| ETH Funding Rate | +0.00% | - |
The biggest topic in the market right now is undoubtedly the Federal Reserve's (Fed) potential interest rate hike. The probability of a U.S. rate hike has surged to 88%, and major Wall Street investment banks are also joining the hike forecasts, making a tightening shift for the first time in 3 years and 2 months highly likely. With the effective federal funds rate at 3.63%, a further hike is expected to further fuel dollar strength. The Dollar Index has already reached 118.2126, continuing its strong performance, which could act as a headwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 4.96%, and the 2-year Treasury yield is 4.63%, maintaining a spread of 0.33%. Expectations of interest rate hikes are leading to rising Treasury yields, putting pressure on the overall stock market. Yesterday, the three major U.S. stock indices, the S&P 500 at -0.45% and the Nasdaq 100 at -0.80%, closed lower, reflecting this pressure. Particularly notable was the decline in technology stocks, including Nvidia, as discussions about moderating AI development speed caused a simultaneous sharp drop in U.S. semiconductor stocks.
Morgan Stanley also warned of a potential U.S. stock market correction within the next 30 days, pointing out that an emergency situation could arise if oil prices reach $140. The spread of inflation concerns due to oil prices breaking $100 could further strengthen the Fed's hawkish stance, so the market is expected to remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic indicators and Fed statements for the time being.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $78156.0, having risen +1.74% in the past 24 hours, but has fallen -0.80% on a weekly basis, continuing its sideways trend. BTC dominance remains high at 58.47910060066518%, indicating that the market's focus is still on Bitcoin.
Recently, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced net outflows of over $460 million, breaking a three-week streak of capital inflows. This, coupled with the surge in Fed rate hike bets, is acting as a headwind for Bitcoin's rebound. However, according to Glassnode analysis, BTC is maintaining a range around the $78,000 mark, having dropped approximately 1% weekly, absorbing the burden of spot and perpetual futures selling and ETF outflows. This is not a sign of a market collapse but rather suggests that strong buying demand exists to some extent.
In the futures market, futures positions totaling $107 million were forcibly liquidated in the past hour, and $362 million over 24 hours. Bitfinex Alpha analyzed that Bitcoin's selling pressure has dropped to its lowest level in the past year, but a lack of buying momentum is limiting price increases. If BTC breaks below $76,029, long positions worth $790 million could be liquidated, and if it breaks above $78,378, short positions worth $490 million could be liquidated, so caution is advised regarding increased price volatility.
Regarding institutional trends, while Strategy (MSTR) stopped buying Bitcoin last week and repurchased preferred shares using its dollar assets, Strive additionally purchased 469 BTC at an average price of $77,954, bringing its total holdings to 25,000 BTC. Morgan Stanley also continues its buying spree, with its Bitcoin holdings surpassing $609 million. This supports the interpretation that Strategy's selling was a capital management strategy rather than a liquidity issue, and that institutional investors are taking over as major Bitcoin buyers.
Ethereum (ETH) is currently at $2514.58, having risen +1.54% in the past 24 hours, showing a similar trend to Bitcoin, but rose +1.70% on a weekly basis, showing relative strength compared to Bitcoin (-0.80%). Bitfinex Alpha analyzed that capital inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs reached $197 million last week and $324 million so far in September, surpassing BTC ETF inflows of $307 million. This is attributed to traders tending to build Ethereum spot ETF positions to use as collateral for CME futures trading.
Bitmain (BMNR) controls 4.9% of Ethereum's supply, holding 5.96 million ETH, and is expected to generate approximately $334 million in annual revenue by staking over 85% of it. Furthermore, Ethereum formed a symmetrical triangle on the 12-hour chart, raising the possibility of breaking above $3,000 this week. The continuous decrease in the proportion of ETH held on exchanges is also a positive sign.
Ripple (XRP) is currently at $1.42, having surged +6.00% in the past 24 hours, drawing market attention. This seems to be driven by news of a sudden agreement on a regulatory bill in U.S. political circles, and having entered the cusp of a symmetrical triangle, a 20% surge is anticipated if it breaks above $1.40. Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD supply increased by 41% month-over-month to $2.442 billion, reaching an all-time high. The XRP Ledger also set a new record by processing 3,254 transactions in a single block, showing active engagement.
Solana (SOL) is at $102.49, up +3.23%, outperforming the market average. Nasdaq-listed DeFi Development (DFDV) additionally purchased 55,491 SOL, bringing its total holdings to 2,388,923 SOL, and the number of Solana-based stock token holding addresses has increased by 88% this month, exceeding 800,000. This is largely attributed to stock tokens being received as fees during memecoin transactions.
Dogecoin (DOGE) rose +1.48% to $0.083631, but showed relative weakness with a -6.90% drop on a weekly basis. U.S. legislation and Fed variables are affecting Dogecoin's test to break above $0.09. In addition, Pons (PONS) surged nearly 17%, and with funds flowing into payment coins, Stellar (XLM) and Ripple (XRP) both surged, showing active movements in individual altcoins. The analysis that the altcoin market's decisive battleground is shifting from 'narrative' to 'actual revenue' is also noteworthy.
The biggest variable in the cryptocurrency market this week is undoubtedly the U.S. Senate's vote on the 'CLARITY Act'. The first procedural vote for floor consideration is scheduled for September 16th at 3:15 AM KST (Korean Standard Time), and the passage of this bill will be a crucial turning point that will determine the future of the U.S. cryptocurrency market.
Republicans are attempting bipartisan consensus by presenting an amendment reflecting Democratic demands as a 'final proposal'. Notably, President Donald Trump reportedly agreed to strong ethical regulations for politicians' cryptocurrency investments and incorporated over 120 Democratic demands. The White House's cryptocurrency lead also predicted a very positive outcome for the CLARITY Act.
However, within the Democratic Party, calls for further amendments persist, and some state attorneys general are voicing opposition, arguing that the current bill could encourage scammers and strip state attorneys general of their investor protection powers. TD Cowen forecasts a 25% chance of the CLARITY Act passing this year, analyzing that the reactions of moderate Democratic members will be a key point to watch. Prediction market traders are seeing a 30% chance of the CLARITY Act passing this year and a 53% chance of it passing before October 1, 2027, indicating a revival of optimism.
Investor sentiment, as reflected by the Fear & Greed Index, rose to 69 (Greed) from 57 (Greed) the previous day, indicating a spreading optimistic mood in the market. However, with the fear of Fed rate hikes and the uncertainty of the CLARITY Act still present, the market's direction remains shrouded in mist.
Amidst the confluence of the Fed's tightening shift and the CLARITY Act's day of destiny, Bitcoin is holding the $78,000 line, absorbing selling pressure, and Ethereum is showing strength with ETF capital inflows, indicating a volatile market where major macroeconomic indicators and regulatory changes are expected to elicit sensitive market reactions.