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Hello, this is Derivative Fox. I'd like to conduct an in-depth analysis of the current market's position structure and the movements of major altcoins, based on data from the Binance USDT-M futures market on September 13, 2026. Today was generally characterized by a notable surge in individual altcoin projects. However, we will closely examine whether this upward trend can be sustained or if we should be wary of a short-term pullback.
Looking at current macroeconomic indicators, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.95% and the 2-year Treasury yield is 4.56%, with a spread of 0.39%, indicating a persistently high interest rate environment. The Dollar Index maintains its strength at 118.0732, so we cannot rule out the possibility that it could act as a pressure factor on risk assets in terms of global liquidity.
US stock markets showed a solid performance, with the S&P 500 rising 0.85% and the NASDAQ 100 rising 0.87%, but the cryptocurrency market showed a somewhat mixed trend. Bitcoin (BTC) only rose +0.09% over 24 hours and fell -3.10% over the past 7 days. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH) showed relative strength, rising +0.40% over 24 hours and +1.80% over 7 days. Particularly, the news of a net inflow of $216 million (approximately 290.2 billion KRW) into Ethereum spot ETFs, coupled with a break above $2,600 leading to short position liquidations, likely acted as a short-term upward driver for Ethereum. Conversely, the continuous net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs for four consecutive trading days, with 17.8 billion KRW exiting, could indicate short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization recorded $2658.8B, and Bitcoin dominance remained high at 58.22%. The Fear & Greed Index, a sentiment indicator, stood at 61 (Greed), a slight decrease from 63 (Greed) the previous day, but still in the greed zone. However, the funding rates for Bitcoin and Ethereum were very low at 0.000048 (+0.00%) and 0.000045 (+0.00%) respectively, suggesting that there are no signs of excessive leveraged long position overheating in the overall market yet.
Today, several altcoins showed sharp rises in the Binance USDT-M futures market. LSKUSDT and 龙虾USDT, in particular, attracted market attention by recording 24-hour volatility rates exceeding 100%. We will analyze the position structures of these major rising assets to understand their characteristics.
LSKUSDT led the market with an impressive +134.09% gain over 24 hours, reaching $0.32927. The 24-hour trading volume amounted to $975.0M, and Open Interest (OI) was a substantial $84.4M. Notably, the funding rate was negative at -0.001615 (-0.16%). This suggests that despite the sharp price increase, short positions were dominant or strong short position liquidations occurred.
Looking at the daily candlestick data for the past 7 days, on September 12, the price surged +131.64% from an opening price of $0.14066 to a closing price of $0.32583, with a concentrated trading volume of $972.8M. However, as of September 13, the price only rose +0.75% from an opening price of $0.32595 to a closing price of $0.3284, and trading volume sharply decreased to $2.4M. This pattern indicates that the previous day's rapid rise was largely a short squeeze, and buying pressure has likely entered a lull thereafter.
龙虾USDT surged +116.49% over 24 hours, reaching $0.154749. Open Interest (OI) is very high at $468.6M, and the funding rate remains positive at 0.000897 (+0.09%). This indicates that the price increase was accompanied by new long position inflows. The 24-hour trading volume was also substantial at $768.2M.
Looking at the daily candlestick, on September 12, the price surged +116.59% from an opening price of $0.071481 to a closing price of $0.154823, accompanied by a trading volume of $768.1M. However, as of September 13, the price fell -0.04% from an opening price of $0.15479 to a closing price of $0.154725, and trading volume drastically decreased to $125K. High OI and a positive funding rate could suggest overheating in long positions, but the current sharp drop in trading volume may indicate a weakening of short-term buying pressure.
GRIFFAINUSDT rose +46.33% over 24 hours, reaching $0.016171. Open Interest (OI) is very high at $377.8M, and the funding rate remains positive at 0.000203 (+0.02%). The 24-hour trading volume was $80.6M.
On September 12, the price rose +44.28% from an opening price of $0.011051 to a closing price of $0.015944, generating a trading volume of $80.5M. As of September 13, the price rose +1.42% from an opening price of $0.015944 to a closing price of $0.01617, but trading volume significantly decreased to $176K. High OI and a positive funding rate still indicate a dominance of long positions, but the reduced trading volume suggests a short-term weakening of momentum.
ALCHUSDT traded at $0.04451, up +38.02% over 24 hours. Open Interest (OI) was $105.9M, and the funding rate recorded a positive 0.000275 (+0.03%). The 24-hour trading volume was $13.4M, which is relatively low compared to other top-performing assets.
On September 12, the price rose +38.26% from an opening price of $0.03225 to a closing price of $0.04459, generating a trading volume of $13.4M. However, as of September 13, the price fell -0.36% from an opening price of $0.04461 to a closing price of $0.04445, and trading volume was extremely minimal at $18K. Assets that surge with low trading volume can experience increased volatility due to lack of liquidity, and a rapid retracement may occur if buying pressure weakens.
REZUSDT rose +27.17% over 24 hours, reaching $0.004119. Open Interest (OI) was a staggering $1.3B, the highest among all top-performing assets, and the funding rate was negative at -0.000416 (-0.04%). The 24-hour trading volume was $43.9M.
On September 12, the price rose +25.22% from an opening price of $0.003239 to a closing price of $0.004056, generating a trading volume of $43.8M. As of September 13, the price rose +1.50% from an opening price of $0.004054 to a closing price of $0.004115, but trading volume decreased to $159K. Extremely high OI and a negative funding rate suggest that a substantial volume of short positions is under pressure, or short positions are accumulating, betting on a surge. This implies very high volatility.
FLOCKUSDT (+28.73%), KOMAUSDT (+27.63%), ILVUSDT (+21.48%), MTLUSDT (+19.20%), and 哈基米USDT (+18.08%) also recorded significant gains over 24 hours. Most of these assets show a tendency to consolidate or undergo slight corrections as trading volumes significantly decreased after the sharp rise on September 12, as of September 13. This can generally be interpreted as buying pressure temporarily pausing after a short-term pump in individual assets.
Today's altcoin surges in the Binance USDT-M futures market appear to have been triggered by individual asset-specific factors or position structures, amidst somewhat divergent trends in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Especially for assets like LSKUSDT and REZUSDT, which surged with negative funding rates, the possibility of a short squeeze is high, and this could lead to a sharp retracement after a short-term rebound, thus requiring extreme caution for new entries. Conversely, for assets like 龙虾USDT and GRIFFAINUSDT, which maintained positive funding rates, there were new long inflows, but the current decrease in trading volume suggests a weakening of momentum.
Overall, after the surge on September 12, most assets on September 13 showed a significant decrease in trading volume and entered a lull. This could indicate short-term profit-taking pressure or a lack of additional buying interest. In a situation where uncertainty exists regarding overall market liquidity flows and the direction of Bitcoin and Ethereum, chasing the sharp rise of individual altcoins can entail high risks.
Today's altcoin surges were primarily driven by individual assets, characterized by a mix of short squeezes and new long inflows, with most entering a lull as of September 13, accompanied by reduced trading volume. Amidst diverging trends in major coins like Bitcoin ETF outflows and Ethereum ETF inflows, the overheated trend in individual altcoins is deemed a time to be wary of short-term retracements. It is crucial to continuously monitor changes in position structure through funding rates and open interest changes.
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