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August 4, 2026, this is Seo Jin-hyuk, a macro strategist from Wall Street. The market is currently grappling with complex macroeconomic indicators and searching for direction. The U.S. stock market closed higher, buoyed by earning expectations from AI-related companies and news of President Trump's withdrawal from Iran, but the cryptocurrency market remains deeply uneasy. Bitcoin, in particular, is on the verge of retesting its $60,000 support level, and the altcoin market is also showing mixed performance.
Where is the market heading now? Let's analyze it coolly through data and figures. The core lies in interest rates, liquidity, and risk appetite. Currently, the market is in extreme fear, caught between the uncertainty of the U.S. regulatory environment and the macroeconomic pressure of coordinated efforts to defend the Japanese Yen's weakness, compounded by institutional capital outflows and individual investors' anxiety.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $63462.0 | +0.10% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $1858.37 | -1.20% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.075 | -0.90% |
| Solana (SOL) | $73.49 | -0.10% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.070157 | -0.80% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 25 (Extreme Fear) | Previous Day: 28 (Fear) |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $757.67 | +1.42% |
| NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) | $700.07 | +1.76% |
| VIX Fear Index | 20.35 | |
| US 10-year Treasury Yield | 4.75% | |
| BTC Funding Rate | 0.000031 | +0.00% |
| ETH Funding Rate | 0.000054 | +0.01% |
The U.S. stock market is showing a robust trend. Amazon surpassed a market capitalization of $3 trillion for the first time, and AI-related tech stocks like Nvidia and AMD received positive outlooks, partially stimulating the market's risk appetite. News of President Trump's deferral of an attack on Iran contributed to the stock market rebound by easing geopolitical tensions.
However, the tone in the interest rate market remains hawkish. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains high at 4.75%, and New York Fed President John Williams, while optimistic about inflation slowing, maintains a hawkish stance, stating that rate hikes are possible if necessary. This could continue to exert pressure on the market's liquidity environment.
In particular, Japan's coordinated defense of the Yen is directly impacting the cryptocurrency market. Analysis suggests that major Bitcoin price drops since 2026 have coincided with periods of Japanese authorities defending the Yen's value, leading to widespread warnings of further Bitcoin declines due to the liquidation of Yen carry trades. Joint intervention by the U.S. and Japan could increase upward pressure on the dollar, burdening risk assets across the board.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading sideways around the $63,462 mark, standing at a critical juncture. While it saw a slight increase over 24 hours, it has lost upward momentum with a -0.40% decline on a weekly basis. Notably, the 'Coldcard hacking incident,' which saw approximately 1,367 BTC stolen and indications of further attacks, has significantly dampened investor sentiment. This has fueled doubts about the security reliability of hardware wallets, exacerbating overall market anxiety.
Institutional capital flows are also negative. Bitcoin spot ETFs ended a three-week streak of inflows, turning to net outflows in a single day. Even BlackRock's IBIT recorded a -45% year-to-date return, signaling a warning for institutional investor demand. MicroStrategy's sale of 1,637 BTC also contributed to short-term selling pressure.
The market's Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 25, indicating 'Extreme Fear.' This aligns with analyses suggesting Bitcoin is in its 'worst undervalued' period since 2010. Some analysts project a 63% probability of Bitcoin falling below $60,000, with some even suggesting a potential drop to $53,000. While the Bitcoin options market shows easing demand for bearish hedges, maintaining the $62,000 support level is presented as a prerequisite for a rebound.
Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $1,858.37, down -1.20%, failing to break past the $1,900 resistance. Despite positive news such as 33.6% of its total supply being staked and BlackRock launching an Ethereum-based tokenized money market fund, the price has not escaped its sideways trend. It has entered a test for a major reversal amidst a five-year sideways consolidation, but has yet to establish a clear direction.
Ripple (XRP) recorded a -0.90% decline to $1.075, facing the risk of breaking its $1 support level. Despite cumulative inflows of $1.5 billion into spot ETFs, it has suffered a humiliating 42% drop year-to-date. Network activity is also slowing, with XRP Ledger's real-world asset transfer volume plummeting 96.88% in a month. Analysis predominantly suggests that securing U.S. regulatory clarity is a crucial factor for a rebound.
Solana (SOL) is down -0.10% to $73.49, facing the risk of falling below $70. Despite recording an all-time high in DeFi deposits, its price has plummeted 63% from its peak. Although the network increased its computational limit per block, the 'hot account bottleneck' persists, revealing structural limitations.
Amidst this market sentiment, Cardano (ADA) showed notable movement, recording the highest weekly gain among the top 100 coins by market capitalization. Large-scale accumulation by whales and expectations of network upgrades have even led to discussions of a potential 1,490% rally revival. This suggests that differentiated trends may emerge even within the altcoin market.
The U.S. Congress's 'Clarity Act,' a bill for cryptocurrency market structure, has been stalled in the Senate for 80 days. With the August recess approaching, the likelihood of its passage is diminishing, increasing market uncertainty. Coinbase is intensifying pressure by launching a new advertising campaign urging the bill's passage, but disagreements between Republicans and Democrats remain unresolved. Bernstein predicts that if the Clarity Act fails, the SEC and CFTC will accelerate their efforts to establish independent cryptocurrency regulations.
Meanwhile, in South Korea, with the 2026 tax reform bill finalized, taxation on virtual asset capital gains is officially set to begin in January next year. A 22% tax will be levied on annual income exceeding 2.5 million KRW, which is expected to affect over 13 million investors. The government's firm stance against tax deferral will impose a new burden on domestic investors. Bithumb is preparing for institutional integration, aiming for an IPO in 2028, by enhancing internal controls and adopting K-IFRS accounting standards.
Despite positive trends in the U.S. stock market, the cryptocurrency market is trapped in extreme fear amidst macroeconomic headwinds such as arguments for interest rate hikes, defense of the weak Yen, and regulatory uncertainty, with the $60,000 support level being tested.
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