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This is Jin-hyuk Seo, Macro Strategist at Wall Street. On July 26, 2026, global financial markets entered a consolidation phase ahead of the FOMC and big tech earnings announcements. In particular, the US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.71%, raising alarms about a potential stock market crash if it breaks 5%, thus heightening market tension. Concerns about inflation due to soaring oil prices are compounding, suggesting increased pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates.
The crypto market is also not immune to the influence of these macroeconomic indicators. Bitcoin is consolidating around the $64,000 level, undergoing a crucial support test. Large-scale outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs indicate a contraction in institutional investors' risk appetite. Let's meticulously analyze where the market is headed through key indicators.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $64318.0 | +0.40% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $1872.9 | +1.00% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.098 | +1.00% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.071691 | +4.40% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 26 (Fear) | Previous Day 27 (Fear) |
| NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) | $684.23 | -1.12% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $738.93 | +0.10% |
| VIX Fear Index | 21.44 | |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.71% | |
| BTC Funding Rate | +0.00% | |
| ETH Funding Rate | -0.00% |
The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.71%, nearing the psychological resistance level of 5%. This comes amid warnings that it will be the 'real test' for the stock market in the second half, with rising interest rates directly impacting the tech-heavy Nasdaq with a -1.12% decline. While the S&P 500 performed relatively well with a +0.10% gain, market anxiety is clearly evident as the VIX Fear Index recorded 21.44.
Recent surges in oil prices and the expansion of US business activity in July (PMI 54.5) are rekindling inflation concerns, acting as factors that increase the likelihood of a September rate hike. If the Fed's hawkish stance strengthens, the global liquidity environment will inevitably contract further. The Dollar Index maintaining a high level at 120.5315 also reflects this trend of liquidity absorption.
Bitcoin is currently showing a slight increase of +0.40% at $64,318.0, but on a 7-day basis, it has fallen -0.50% and is consolidating around the $64,000 level. Notably, it has consistently faced resistance around $67,000 and $68,000, failing to break through. Some analysts suggest this is due to a "supply bomb" amounting to 3.55 million BTC.
The most concerning aspect is the net outflow of $240 million (approximately 351.3 billion KRW) from Bitcoin spot ETFs, marking two consecutive days of outflows. With $212.2 million alone flowing out of BlackRock's IBIT, it indicates a rapid shift in institutional investor demand. The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index recording negative values for 67 consecutive days also serves as evidence of contracting investor sentiment.
However, the supply of Bitcoin held by Long-Term Holders has reached an all-time high of 15 million BTC, and the fact that 40% of this is in an unrealized loss state yet holders are not selling demonstrates continued strong conviction in Bitcoin for the long term. Some analysis suggests this is similar to on-chain indicators observed during market cycle bottoms in the past.
Ethereum is currently up +1.00% at $1,872.9, but on a 7-day basis, it recorded a modest gain of +0.80%. Furthermore, approximately $70.7 million (about 103.4 billion KRW) was net-outflowed from Ethereum spot ETFs, breaking a streak of 5 consecutive days of net inflows. This suggests that the trend of Wall Street funds seemingly moving from Hyperliquid (HYPE) ETF to Ethereum ETF could be reversing.
Ripple (XRP) is up +1.00% at $1.098, but its upward momentum is wavering as even retail investors turn away and institutional fund inflows have stopped. While there's positive news, such as RWA (Real World Asset) inflows into the XRP Ledger (XRPL) reaching $2.6 billion over the past six months, ranking second after BNB Chain, concerns are growing about potential large-scale selling pressure due to an anticipated $1.1 billion token unlock in August.
Meanwhile, in the Binance USDT-M futures market, certain altcoins like EULUSDT (+87.85%), ESPORTSUSDT (+36.29%), and QUSDT (+24.96%) showed high growth rates, indicating speculative demand for individual themes. Shiba Inu (SHIB) saw its network activity surge by 78%, yet its price weakened by 78%, suggesting that ecosystem uncertainties remain unresolved.
The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 26 (Fear), a further decrease from 27 (Fear) on the previous day. This indicates that overall market investor sentiment remains engulfed in fear. Macroeconomic uncertainties and major cryptocurrency ETF outflows are interpreted as stimulating investors' risk-averse sentiment.
In the futures market, forced liquidations amounting to $82.26 million occurred, with the liquidation ratio for BTC perpetual futures long positions reaching 81.48%. Similarly, ETH saw $56.65 million in long positions liquidated, indicating significant losses for long-position investors. This is a clear sign that bullish bets in the market are failing. News of a specific address entering a $38.67 million 40x leveraged BTC long position suggests that high-risk investments still exist, but the current unrealized losses make it difficult to predict the market's direction.
Amid macroeconomic pressures from US interest rate hike fears and institutional fund outflows, Bitcoin is exerting full effort to defend its $60,000 support level, and the altcoin market is also expected to continue its overall bearish trend, excluding individual themes.