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This is Seo Jin-hyuk, a macro strategist from Wall Street. As of July 24, 2026, the market is seeking direction amidst complex macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical risks. US stocks have shown a decline, and a surge in international oil prices has reignited inflation concerns, stimulating risk-off sentiment across various risky assets. Where is the market looking right now? Data clearly shows that risk aversion and liquidity tightening pressures continue to dominate the market.
The crypto market is also not free from these macroeconomic trends. Despite continuous capital inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, major cryptocurrencies are struggling with declines and showing unstable performance. Investor sentiment remains in the 'Fear' zone, reflecting market uncertainty.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $65051.0 | -1.20% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $1877.46 | -2.70% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.11 | -2.50% |
| Solana (SOL) | $75.86 | -2.30% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.069168 | -4.60% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 28 (Fear) | Prev. Day 31 (Fear) |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | $691.96 | -1.90% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $738.18 | -1.23% |
| VIX Fear Index | 21.78 | - |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.67% | - |
| BTC Funding Rate | 0.000076 | +0.01% |
| ETH Funding Rate | -0.000011 | -0.00% |
The biggest topic in the market currently is the surge in international oil prices due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East. News of President Trump's consideration to resume military operations in Iran and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's claim of attacking a US military base have pushed international oil prices to the $100 level, exacerbating inflationary pressures. This weakens expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut and, instead, increases the possibility of a rate freeze or even a hike (currently a 33.7% probability).
The US 10-year Treasury yield remains high at 4.67%, and the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.31%, indicating a significant burden on market funding costs. The spread between long and short-term yields remains positive at 0.36%, but this does not mean that recession concerns have been completely resolved. The dollar index remains high at 120.5315, reflecting a preference for safe-haven assets.
Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims fell to 187,000, below the estimated 211,000, suggesting a robust labor market. This could provide the Fed with a rationale to focus on curbing inflation, further pushing back rate cut expectations. The imposition of 'forced labor tariffs' and new country-specific tariffs by the US Trade Representative (USTR) also increases uncertainty in the global trade environment, putting a burden on the overall macroeconomic landscape.
US stocks closed lower due to a combination of surging international oil prices and concerns over sluggish tech earnings. The S&P 500 fell -1.23%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped -1.90%, clearly showing the widespread risk-off sentiment. Notably, Tesla (TSLA) plunged over 12% due to a decrease in Q2 net income and worsening cash flow, leading the Nasdaq index's decline. Alphabet (GOOGL) also struggled with a decline despite a surge in cloud revenue, due to increased AI investment costs and 'cash cliff' concerns.
This suggests that big tech companies' expanded investments in artificial intelligence (AI) are acting as a short-term earnings burden. However, JPMorgan Chase offered a positive outlook, suggesting the S&P 500 could reach 8,200 next year based on strong earnings and the impact of AI investments. But the VIX index, reflecting current market fear, remains high at 21.78, representing investor anxiety.
The total crypto market capitalization stands at $2299.0B, with 24-hour trading volume at $61.7B, indicating an overall contracting market sentiment. Bitcoin dominance remains high at 56.72934384539408%, suggesting relatively higher interest in Bitcoin compared to altcoins.
The Fear & Greed Index, an indicator of investor sentiment, dropped further to 28 (Fear) from 31 (Fear) the previous day, showing intensified market fear. This confirms that geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties are complexly interacting, causing investors to reduce their exposure to risky assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) recorded a -1.20% decline over 24 hours to $65051.0, threatening the $65,000 support level. What is noteworthy is that despite US Bitcoin spot ETFs recording net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, with a total of $981.2 million flowing in, Bitcoin's price has fallen. This means that macroeconomic headwinds such as inflation concerns due to surging international oil prices and a decline in US stocks are offsetting the effect of institutional capital inflows.
Glassnode analyzed in a report that BTC selling pressure has largely subsided and the macro environment could improve, but the market currently appears more sensitive to short-term macro headwinds. The BTC funding rate remains slightly positive at 0.000076, but this is closer to a neutral level rather than indicating strong bullish bets. While Bitcoin miners emerging as power providers for AI data centers could be a long-term positive factor, it is insufficient to change the immediate market trend.
Ethereum (ETH) fell -2.70% over 24 hours to $1877.46, showing a larger decline than Bitcoin. Despite interest in derivatives and net inflows into spot ETFs, it failed to break through $1,937 and slipped below $1,900. The ETH funding rate recorded a negative value of -0.000011, indicating a prevalence of short-term bearish bets.
Ripple (XRP) fell -2.50% over 24 hours to $1.11. The passage of the "Clarity Act" is a crucial variable for XRP's price, and news that the bill is unlikely to pass before the summer recess increases uncertainty. In the XRP futures market, leveraged trading is reviving, signaling high volatility, but the long-short ratio hit a one-month low, indicating a prevalence of bearish bets.
Among major altcoins, Dogecoin (DOGE) fell -4.60% over 24 hours, even threatening its year-low of $0.069. Solana (SOL) also fell -2.30% to $75.86, affected by the spread of risk aversion sentiment due to macroeconomic instability.
However, in the Binance USDT-M futures market, some altcoins like RIFUSDT (+74.56%), AKEUSDT (+46.21%), and ESPORTSUSDT (+34.83%) recorded high gains, showing strong individual momentum. These assets, accompanied by high trading values and volumes, indicate that short-term speculative demand is concentrated even amidst market volatility.
Investor sentiment remains in the 'Fear' zone, but significant changes are detected in the stablecoin market. Kakao and Toss have signed an MOU with US Circle (CRCL) for Korean won stablecoin cooperation, raising expectations for the expansion of domestic digital financial infrastructure. Samsung Electronics has also announced the introduction of stablecoins to Samsung Wallet, showing traditional finance and IT companies actively entering the stablecoin market.
Meanwhile, Coinbase is taking a leading role in the regulated tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market by investing in Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund's tokenized products and reflecting them on its financial statements. This is a positive sign that long-term institutional integration and liquidity expansion in the cryptocurrency market can be expected. The development of AI technology is influencing various fields such as cryptocurrency mining, payments, and security, and President Trump has also mentioned that the US should maintain its global leadership in AI and cryptocurrency, suggesting potential policy support.
Amidst inflationary concerns driven by international oil prices and geopolitical risks pressuring US stocks and major cryptocurrency markets, leading to a dominant risk-off sentiment, some altcoins and the stablecoin market are seeking individual growth momentum.