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Hello, this is Seo Jin-hyuk, a macro strategist from Wall Street. As of May 20, 2026, the market is navigating complex macroeconomic indicators and investor sentiment more than ever. US bond yields have reached their highest level since 2007, putting pressure on traditional financial markets, and this pressure is fully transferring to the cryptocurrency market.
Major altcoins, including Bitcoin, have seen significant weekly declines, pushing investor sentiment into the 'extreme fear' phase. However, amidst this fear, signals of accumulation from some whale investors and individual strong movements in certain altcoins are being detected, necessitating a sober analysis of where the market is headed.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change | 7d Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $76753.0 | -0.23% | -4.83% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2109.75 | -0.86% | -7.56% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.36 | -2.08% | -5.51% |
| Solana (SOL) | $84.21 | -1.26% | -11.06% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.10291 | -1.62% | -6.69% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 25 (Extreme Fear) | ||
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | $701.53 | -0.62% | |
| VIX Fear Index | 26.62 | ||
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.61% | ||
| BTC Funding Rate | 0.00% | ||
| ETH Funding Rate | 0.01% |
The market is currently deeply concerned about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) prolonged hawkish stance. US 30-year Treasury yields have surged to 5.177%, the highest since 2007, and 10-year Treasury yields are at 4.61%. These are key factors exerting liquidity pressure across all asset markets.
According to CME FedWatch, the probability of an interest rate freeze in June is 99%, and expectations for a rate cut remain very low even through July. This prolonged high-interest rate environment is a primary cause of increased funding costs and dampened risk asset appetite.
Simultaneously, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continue to amplify market uncertainty. Despite news of President Trump's postponement of an attack on Iran, Middle East risks are fueling inflation concerns alongside upward pressure on oil prices, contributing to increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin is currently consolidating around the $76,753.0 mark, searching for short-term direction. It has fallen by -0.23% over the past 24 hours and -4.83% over 7 days, facing bearish pressure. Notably, a net outflow of $448.4 million from BlackRock's IBIT and approximately $648.6 million overall has occurred in Bitcoin spot ETFs, indicating a prominent selling trend among institutional investors.
However, what's interesting is that even amidst these institutional outflows, the number of addresses holding 100 BTC or more has increased by 11% year-on-year, reaching 20,229. This suggests that some whale investors are using the market's fear as an accumulation opportunity. K33 Research also analyzed that the current market's 'unique pessimism' is paradoxically acting as a safety net against further drastic declines.
Conversely, retail investors' BTC inflows to Binance have decreased to an all-time low. According to on-chain analyst Darkpost, the average Binance inflow from holders with less than 1 BTC over the past month is only 314 BTC, a figure even lower than previous cycle lows. This suggests that retail investors may have left the market or are participating indirectly through spot ETFs.
In the futures market, the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has decreased by 848.7%, clearly indicating an expansion of selling pressure, while in the options market, the 25-delta skew has risen by 42.8%, increasing demand for downside hedging. These data clearly show that Bitcoin is exposed to short-term bearish pressure.
Ethereum has seen a larger decline than Bitcoin, dropping by -7.56% over the past 7 days and -0.86% over 24 hours, reaching $2,109.75. Net outflows have also occurred for 6 consecutive trading days in Ethereum spot ETFs, indicating sustained selling pressure from institutions.
Nevertheless, the amount of Ethereum held in corporate reserves has surpassed an all-time high of 7.33 million ETH, demonstrating robust long-term holding demand despite panic selling from small and medium-sized whales. Furthermore, despite news of key personnel departing the Ethereum Foundation, analysts like Tom Lee predict that this correction could present an attractive buying opportunity.
XRP has fallen by -5.51% over the past 7 days and -2.08% over 24 hours, reaching $1.36, continuing to test the $1.30-$1.40 support level. With new address inflows plummeting and analyses suggesting it has entered a 'volatility vacuum,' short-term bearishness is a concern.
However, Ripple is showing the fastest growth in the Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization market, surpassing Ethereum and Solana with its XRP Ledger, and there is positive news such as the issuance of its own stablecoin, RLUSD. Furthermore, the repeal of the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) 'gag order' can be interpreted as a positive signal for Ripple in terms of resolving regulatory uncertainty.
Solana recorded the largest decline among major altcoins, falling by -11.06% over the past 7 days to $84.21. It is facing complex selling pressures including whale sales, Pump.fun sales, and profit-taking by early investors.
Specifically, there's a possibility that Pump.fun, a Solana-based memecoin launchpad, has resumed selling SOL after 9 months, and OG whales who had staked for over 5 years have also sold an additional 30,000 SOL, continuously pressuring the market with supply. With these selling pressures combined, Solana could face even greater short-term downward pressure.
Amidst the overall market downturn, Hyperliquid (HYPE) stood out by recording high growth rates in the Binance USDT-M futures market. Bitwise evaluated Hyperliquid not merely as a futures exchange but as a global financial super app encompassing stocks, commodities, forex, and prediction markets, identifying the HYPE token as an undervalued asset.
The partnership with Coinbase and Circle for USDC, allowing the platform to secure up to 90% of the USDC yield deposited, is also analyzed to provide continuous buying pressure for HYPE tokens. This fundamentally changes Hyperliquid's business model, leading to expectations of increased revenue not only from trading volume but also from the size of deposited assets in the future.
The current Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 25, indicating the 'Extreme Fear' stage. This shows that investor sentiment is severely dampened. The Nasdaq index also started with a -0.62% decline, with the weakness in traditional stock markets negatively impacting the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin and Ethereum funding rates remain very low at 0.00% and 0.01% respectively, indicating a contraction in leverage demand. While this might reduce the likelihood of a sharp drop due to excessive leverage liquidations in the past, it also implies limited strong buying pressure.
However, as K33 Research analyzed that extreme market pessimism is similar to characteristics observed at market bottoms, the current fear sentiment could paradoxically act as a safety net against further drastic declines. The steady increase in whale addresses holding over 100 BTC suggests that large investors continue to accumulate in the long term.
Currently, the market is struggling with a bearish trend for Bitcoin and major altcoins amidst macroeconomic pressures such as prolonged high-interest rates and geopolitical risks. Institutional ETF outflows and retail panic selling are exacerbating short-term downward pressure. However, paradoxically, the 'extreme fear' sentiment could be a signal for a market bottom, and the accumulation by some whales and the strength of differentiated altcoins show a faint hope in the market. The current market demands patient investors to seek opportunities through sober data analysis.
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sam5
·어우.. 장투 간다 ㅅㅂ
Sky_Knight
·음, 지켜볼 만하군.
LuxWalker
·ㅋㅋㅋㅋ 이거 완전 떡락장인데 존버가 답이다
점잖은다람쥐
·글쎄, 또 똑같은 얘기네
낚시꾼60
·어휴, 월스트리트 형님 글 좀 읽기 어렵네